January the 31st, 2022 - Croatian epidemiologist Bernard Kaic has stated that covid passes, often called covid certificates or even passports, are having less and less meaning or sense as time goes on and the epidemiological situation unfolds. It appears that the Omicron variant is changing many parameters.

As Poslovni Dnevnik writes, epidemiologist Bernard Kaic was a recent guest of Dnevnik Nova TV and commented on the current epidemiological situation across Croatia, including covid confirmations, the Omicron variant and vaccination.

"The fact is that covid passes make less and less sense as time goes on with the emergence and spread of the Omicron variant," epidemiologist Bernard Kaic said. Now, at the time of the spread of the new Omicron variant, those who aren't yet vaccinated are more likely to be contagious than the vaccinated are, according to a CNIPH study. The rules have already started to change because of this new strain. Soon, there will probably be more changes regarding the use of covid passes. There will be a lot of changes,'' he added rather vaguely.

Something is constantly changing in this pandemic, it's difficult to keep up with all of the latest changes. All of these changes are fertile ground for conspiracy theories and the acquisition of mistrust. Whoever wants to interpret the changes as a reason for a lack of trust or as some conspiracy theory - can, of course. The fact is that things are changing because the situation is changing, and it's doing so from week to week,'' he explained.

He added that worries that people are still not getting vaccinated enough and believes that those who have not done so yet should make sure they do as soon as possible.

"We still have a large number of elderly people who haven't yet been vaccinated. Omicron rarely causes severe clinical pictures, but with such a wide circulation, we do still have a large number of hospitalised people, and sadly people are still dying,'' he said.

Some people also have doubts and have some odd beliefs when it comes to booster doses as well, but Kaic has a message for them: "If they don't believe what the profession says, let them read some scientific articles."

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January the 18th, 2022 - Epidemiologist Bernard Kaic has hinted at possible epidemiological measure alterations in Croatia, stating that the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus behaves like a ''totally different virus''.

As Poslovni Dnevnik writes, Omicron seems to be able to get around the immune systems of those who have had previous covid infections, but also in those who have been vaccinated against it. For example, among those who were registered as newly infected on Sunday, about 30 percent were vaccinated with two doses, and five percent with three (the third being their booster dose).

That said, those who have been vaccinated against the novel coronavirus and those who have earned their immunity naturally (by contracting and recovering from the disease) usually only have milder symptoms when they catch Omicron.

Bernard Kaic from the Croatian National Institute of Public Health has emphasised that the Omicron variant seems to successfully avoid previously acquired immunity because it behaves almost like an entirely new virus of its own.

He also pointed out that his colleagues from the field recently sent him the example of a young man who fell ill just one month after first contracting the virus and becoming unwell.

"We'll probably need to change the recommendation to get vaccinated earlier after having the first illness, let's say three months after a person has their first illness," Bernard Kaic told Dnevnik.hr.

"Those who have contracted and recovered from coronavirus should be vaccinated after being ill, regardless of whether they've been vaccinated before or not," said epidemiologist Bernard Kaic, who added that when it comes to Omicron, it appears much harder to remain uninfected.

Alemka Markotic, the director of Zagreb's ''Dr. Fran Mihaljevic'' Clinic for Infectious Diseases explained that the existing coronavirus vaccines don't offer protection against Omicron infection in a high percentage, but they do up to around 30 percent. They do however offer a far higher level of protection against serious clinical pictures requiring hospitalisation, and against death.

Alemka Markotic stated that two doses of the vaccine protect up to 65 and more percent, and the third booster offers protection over 80 to 90 percent - from more severe forms of illness and death.

''The unvaccinated are the reservoirs of new variants of the novel coronavirus, which dictate the development of the epidemic,'' explained Professor Vlahovicek.

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December the 9th, 2021 - Epidemiologist Bernard Kaic was a recent guest on H1 TV, on which he discussed the vaccination of children aged between five and eleven against the novel coronavirus, which is set to begin in Croatia shortly. He also discussed the first recently confirmed vaccine-related fatality in the country, which was confirmed recently.

As Poslovni Dnevnik writes, Bernard Kaic said that when the initial report of a suspicion of a vaccine side effect came to their attention, they first went through all of the medical documentation carefully.

''We looked at what and how much is known about what that vaccine can or cannot cause, given that back in the beginning it was not known for sure but there was a signal that it could cause the effect which the individual suffered. It was only after a month or two that it was confirmed that this extremely rare side effect is indeed possible. Additional laboratory tests were then needed to confirm the diagnosis, then additional clinical data was required, and then we discussed it in the working group and concluded that this was probably, almost certainly in fact, related to the vaccine. HALMED was still seeking external expertise, so it took time. We concluded it at the expert group much earlier, but HALMED wanted another external confirmation before it went public with the information,'' explained Bernard Kaic.

We have no official reports of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia

"Statistically, we should have a few more such cases. The incidence of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia is one in 100,000 vaccinated individuals, and we've been vaccinated with over 500,000 doses of AstraZeneca and it is possible that there are others that we missed, but we have no official reports of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia. We have reports of thrombosis, that people have had various coagulation disorders, we also have some reports of bleeding, the propensity to bleed after vaccination, bruising that people have, but these patients haven't been thoroughly treated to see if thrombosis with thrombocytopenia is the case because it's a separate, new entity and we don't have any official reports,'' Bernard Kaic said in answer to the question of whether it's possible that we do indeed have more similar cases undetected across Croatia.

The use of the AstraZeneca vaccine will continue just as it did before

"Given that this isn't surprising and that it's expected, and with this risk of one in 100,000 vaccinated people, it's believed that the benefits of vaccination in this situation are much greater than the possible side effects of the vaccine because 100,000 vaccinated people prevent many more hospitalisations, severe forms of illness and death, than the risk that, unfortunately, someone will die from a side effect. Nothing changes regarding the recommendations for the use of AstraZeneca. In June, when the incidence fell, we estimated that at that time, vaccination with AstraZeneca wasn't recommended for those under 50 years of age because they have a higher risk than the elderly do, and the risk of coronavirus complications for that group is lower than in the case of older people. Now, in the fourth wave, the benefits of AstraZeneca outweigh the risks in all age groups, but if the decline in the number of overall patients continues, it will be time to return the recommendation from June,'' said Bernard Kaic.

He also commented on the vaccination of children aged five to eleven, which will begin in Croatia soon

“It will be able to start next week, we're just waiting for the vaccine to arrive. The European and American agencies have given approval for the use of children's formulations, also with the opinion that the benefits of vaccination are greater and there is no obstacle for children from five to eleven years of age to be vaccinated. We'll primarily recommend vaccinating children who have chronic diseases or those who have chronically ill persons or immunocompromised persons living in the same household. There are countries that started before us, such as Israel and the United States, and so far there are no safety signals that would indicate a problem in terms of side effects,'' concluded Bernard Kaic.

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August the 8th, 2021 - Croatian epidemiologist Bernard Kaic recently spoke about the situation surrounding covid passes, sometimes called ''covid passports'' in Croatia, as well as why cafes and bars are still having their work limited despite the good epidemiological picture and the continued vaccine rollout.

As Poslovni Dnevnik writes, when asked whether or not Croatia will remain ''orange'' on the ECDC coronavirus map until the end of the summer if we continue to behave like this, epidemiologist Bernard Kaic said:

"I don't know. Time will tell. We can see that the number of new cases is growing a bit, so if we continue to behave in the same way, the coast will probably not remain orange until the end of the summer. However, the measures should be adhered to a little more strictly.''

He also explained why the measures against one of the hardest hit sectors, the hospitality and catering industry, are still not being relaxed:

"If they're working outdoors and it's not crowded, it doesn't matter if it's 12:30 or past one in the morning, the only problem is if working after midnight would involve working indoors in a big, crowded, poorly ventilated area where everyone is very close to everyone else, in such situations, it's almost certain that someone there will be carrying the virus.''

He believes that covid certificates work well in Croatia.

“Both before the covid passes were introduced and before the vaccination rollout began, things could have been maintained with the use of masks, maintaining social distance, the disinfection of surfaces and hands, and the isolation of infected individuals. Even without these covid certificates, one could have lived with those epidemiological measures, but they don't provide total and absolute safety,'' explained epidemiologist Bernard Kaic for RTL, before adding:

''The biggest issue with these covid passes are those issued on the basis of someone having received a negative test in the last 48 or 72 hours because that can be a false negative. A person can be negative at the time of taking the test, and positive the next day if they became infected a few days ago. If there are many people obtaining these passes because they've just returned a negative test then there's an issue as these are people who haven’t been vaccinated and who haven't contracted the disease and then recovered from it. If there are a large number of such cases, someone among them will be infected, even if they had a negative test result two or three days ago.

If a large number of people have covid passes based on having returned a negative test, then that's a pretty good ground for the spread of the infection," epidemiologist Bernard Kaic pointed out.

As for the plan for autumn and the new school year, of course, there are no firm guidelines yet, nor can there be as the situation is fluid.

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July the 25th, 2021 - Under what conditions exactly could Croatia afford to fully open up again? With all eyes on the enviable vaccination rate of the British population and the final, total opening up of that Northern European island nation's society on the 19th of July, questions are being asked. Croatian epidemiologist Bernard Kaic sought to answer some questions.

As Poslovni Dnevnik writes, epidemiologist Bernard Kaic says that the number of older and potentially clinically vulnerable people who haven't yet been vaccinated is still much too high in Croatia. In his opinion, the response to vaccination in the last few weeks has been much more solid because between 5,000 and 10,000 people are being vaccinated with their first dose on a daily basis, and between 10,000 and 15,000 are receiving their second dose.

Over recent says, the whole world has been busy closely following the events in Great Britain, where, despite the growing number of coronavirus patients, almost all epidemiological measures have been abolished since Monday, Novi list writes. Concert halls, clubs and stadiums are open with almost no restrictions, but some scientists warn that this is a risky experiment to undertake with some uncertain consequences.

The British authorities estimated that, with the relatively high vaccination rate in that country, the time had come to open up and stop living in a world in which we do nothing but think about the novel coronavirus.

Epidemiologist Bernard Kaic, head of the CNIPH's Epidemiology Service, says that the British experience in the coming weeks, if their opening up proves justified, will be able to serve as an example to other countries, but only to those with high vaccination coverage. Croatia isn't in that club yet. The United Kingdom has vaccinated almost 70 percent of the population with the first dose, and 55 percent with the second. Among those who are older and more vulnerable, the vaccination rate in the UK is as high as 85 percent.

''I don't know what will happen in Great Britain, time will tell. This depends on how protected by vaccination those who are the main candidates for hospitalisation, primarily older people, actually are. As far as I understand, they've achieved great vaccination coverage among those people there and are counting on not filling hospital beds up because the elderly are protected and the young are suffering from milder forms of the disease they can cope with at home. Whether that will be the case or not will be revealed in a few weeks,'' stated Bernard Kaic.

The main condition for the introduction of the British model in another country is a high vaccination coverage of the population, until Croatia manages to join that club, it doesn't seem like a British-style grand opening is on the cards.

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