9. svibnja 2020. - Kako će izgledati budućnost letova prema Hrvatskoj u svijetu nakon korone? TCN o tome razgovara s Maxom Oldorfom, izvršnim direktorom (COO) kompanije koja se bavi podacima u zrakoplovnom prometu, ch-aviation.

Jedna od najvećih nepoznanica u svijetu velikih nepoznanica u kojem sad živimo je kako će izgledati budućnost putovanja, posebice u kontekstu zrakoplovnih putovanja. Hoće li zrakoplovne kompanije preživjeti, hoće li preživjeti niskotarifne kompanije, što će se dogoditi s letovima između kontinenata? I što očekivati od letova prema Hrvatskoj s ključnih tržišta kasnije ove godine i sljedeće godine?

Jedna od osoba koja na ta pitanja može dati bolje odgovore od većine drugih ljudi, kako o pitanjima budućnosti te industrije a tako i o pitanjima letova u Hrvatsku je Max Oldolf, jedan od osnivača švicarske kompanije ch-aviation. Ta kompanija podatke o kretanjima u industriji prodaje svojim klijentima diljem svijeta: zračnim lukama, zračnim prijevoznicima i drugima. Oldorf redovito posjećuje Zagreb, jer je kompanijina najveća podružnica u hrvatskom glavnom gradu - o tome pročitajte više u ovoj TCN-ovoj priči na engleskom jeziku. 

Zrakoplovna industrija doživjela je ogromnu promjenu u posljednjih par mjeseci, a posljedice će se osjećati godinama. Kako će se to odraziti na najveće igrače na hrvatskom tržištu? Prije svega, pogledajmo tržište interkontinentalnih letova, koje se u Hrvatskoj razvija posljednjih godina. American, Qatar (za Dubrovnik), Emirates, Air Canada - svi su svoje planove za 2020. odgodili za sljedeću godinu. Hoće li se vratiti?

Općenito, moramo prihvatiti da će svijet od sada nadalje izgledati drukčije, pa mislim da ćemo jednostavno morati živjeti s novom normalom. Neki od ovih letova možda će se vratiti u sljedeće dvije godine, a neke od njih nećemo nikada više vidjeti. Mislim da je dosta izvjesno da ćemo ove godine vidjeti vrlo nizak broj, blizu nuli, interkontinentalnih letova. Ako ne bude drugog i sljedećih valova, možda se neki od letova vrate već sljedeće godine. Ali, moja preporuka je da se treba koncentrirati na vraćanje domaćih letova, pa onda europskih, pa ako tu sve bude u redu, interkontinentalni će se vratiti u nekom trenutku.

Tržišta Velike Britanije i Skandinavije su važna za Hrvatsku. Norwegian je u problemima, Gatwick se prazni, direktor easyJeta kaže da će vraćati "poput startupa", direktor Ryanaira izjavljuje da ako vlada ne bude plaćala za srednje sjedalo, Ryanair neće letjeti. Stvari izgledaju loše. Kako će se promijeniti tržište jeftinih letova za Hrvatsku iz Velike Britanije i Skandinavije? Što će se dogoditi sa cijenama i učestalošću??

Jedino što nas sad treba zanimati jest hoće li biti turističke ljetne sezone u Hrvatskoj ili ne. Rekao bih da, s najnovijim razvojem situacije, sezonu još ne bi trebalo otpisivati. Mnogim ljudima je dosta lockdowna i jedva čekaju otići negdje na put čim im to ponovo bude omogućeno. Količina putnika bit će malena zbog mjera sigurnosti ili straha koji se uvukao u neke građane, ali općenito mislim da će zrakoplovne kompanije početi letjeti čim im to bude dopušteno i budu imali putnike koje trebaju prevesti.

Što se tiče cijena, u kratkom ćemo roku vidjeti neke zaista dobre ponude za putnike. Zračne kompanije će biti prekapacitirane i Ryanair i Wizzair su već najavili da će se boriti za svakog putnika niskim cijenama, dakle u sljedećih godinu ili dvije vidjet ćemo novi rat cijenama na europskom nebu dok se ne smiri situacija na tržištu..

Jednom rečenicom opišite nam stanje u sljedećim kompanijama, s naglaskom na to kakav odnos od njih možemo očekivati nakon korone prema hrvatskom tržištu..

Ryanair: Za njih se uopće ne brinem. Oni će se vratiti punom snagom čim budu mogli stabilno letjeti. Koliko znam, Ryanair održava svoju flotu u posve operativnom stanju, tako da mogu ponovo krenuti u bilo kojem trenutku.

easyJet: I prije ove krize bili su u sukobu sa svojim dioničarima oko toga jesu li prebrzo rasli u posljednjih par godina. Osnivač, Stelios, nije zadovoljan takvim rastom i izjavio je da bi manji easyJet mogao biti profitabilniji. Ova kriza bi ih sad mogla oštetiti, ali ni za njih ne brinem, i oni će se vratiti.

Norwegian: Norwegian je sad već hodajući mrtvac, još uvijek na životu samo zato što su im dioničari i leasing kompanije dali neko vrijeme da se restrukturiraju. Ne računam da će se uopće uskoro vratiti u Hrvatsku.

Eurowings: Mislim da će se oni vratiti slično kao Ryanair i easyJet. Letovi za Hrvatsku dio su njihovog osnovnog biznisa ne-poslovnih putovanja, pa čim se pojavi interes, ponovo će letjeti.

Jet2: Jednako kao i za Eurowings.

Lufthansa: Nešto drukčija situacija, jer se oni ipak koncentriraju na povezanost preko svojih hubova u Frankfurtu i Münchenu, pa imaju više poslovnih putnika od onih koji idu na odmore. Možda u Hrvatsku budu slali manje avione, ali će sigurno biti povezanosti.

BA: Vjerojatno slično kao i Lufthansa, možda će koristiti manje avione.

SAS: Kompanija je iskoristila vrijeme korone da obavi neophodno restrukturiranje, otpuštanje dijela osoblja i slično. Očekujem da će se vratiti. U kojem obliku, to ćemo tek vidjeti.

Croatia Airlines nakon korone?

Croatia Airlines je tijekom ove krize pokazala zašto je bitno imati nacionalnu zrakoplovnu kompaniju. Pružili su ključnu liniju za Frankfurt, letjeli do Kine da bi dovezli zaštitnu opremu, obavili mnoštvo letova kojima su vratili hrvatske državljane u zemlju i slično. Hrvati zaista mogu biti ponosni na svoju zrakoplovnu kompaniju, jer je to nešto s čime bi se Hrvatska zaista mučila da nisu imali nacionalnu kompaniju koja funkcionira.

Imat će također i ključnu ulogu u oporavku hrvatskog gospodarstva, jer će imati mnogo bolju povezanost nego druge zemlje u regiji kad se ukinu ograničenja kretanja. Ali, to je nešto što je propast Adria Airwaysa već drastično pokazala. Adria je propala i nitko nije preuzeo njihove napuštene linije iz Ljubljane. Bilo je povećanja broja letova prema većim hubovima, ali mnoge direktne linije su ipak izgubljene.

Zato je Croatia Airlines toliko bitna za razvoj Hrvatske, pružaju direktne linije koje nitko drugi ne bi pružao. Važno je i da oni plaćaju porez u Hrvatskoj, pa iako im Vlada mora pomoći s vremena na vrijeme proračunskim novcem, taj se novac uvijek vrati, kroz poreze, dodanu vrijednost za zemlju i slično. Jedino što bi Croatia Airlines trebala je pronaći većeg partnera da bi se koristili sinergijski učinci, smanjili troškovi i slično. Dobar partner bi ih izazivao svakim danom da budu sve bolji.

Slično Swissu kojeg sada u vlasništvu ima Lufthansa i koji je bio premalen da bi bio profitabilan dok je poslovao samostalno, ali s većom količinom novca iza sebe postali su nezaustavljivi. Bio sam baš uzbuđen kad sam vidio da je Aegean zainteresiran za njih. Aegean je fantastična kompanija s pametnim, lean poslovnim modelom koji se može nositi sa sezonalnošću, a čak bi i flote tih dviju kompanija bile 100 % kompatibilne. Nadam se da će se ti razgovori nastaviti kad se sve ovo završi. To bi bio sjajan brak.

Očekujete li da će neke nove kompanije ući na hrvatsko tržište, ili da će neke povećati prisutnost na njemu. Na primjer, Wizzair, koji je dosta aktivan u regiji. 

Kao i u svakoj drugoj krizi, neke kompanije će propasti jer su i prije bile u lošem stanju, a druge će u tome vidjeti sjajne prilike. Wizzair je svakako u toj drugoj skupini i sada zaista zauzijamu sve veći dio tržišta. Ulazak Wizzaira na hrvatsko tržište imao bi smisla i vjerojatno će se i dogoditi ako se smanje aerodromske takse na kompetitivnu razinu.

Značajno smanjenje prometa utjecalo je na zračne luke diljem svijeta. Koliko pate hrvatske zračne luke? Koncesija u Zagrebu je već bila kontroverzna. Kako će ova situacija utjecati na to?

Pa, situacija je za sve zračne luke zaista loša, zato će se boriti kao ludi da vrate promet k sebi. Za to se hrvatske zračne luke sada moraju pripremiti. Moraju stvoriti poticaje za kompetitivnost i podržati programe za zrakoplovne kompanije kako bi nastavile dolaziti u Hrvatsku, a ne prebacile svoj promet na druge zemlje u regiji.

Koliki postotak smanjenja prometa očekujete u 2021. u odnosu na 2019. u hrvatskim zračnim lukama?

Rekao bih da je moguće sve između -50 % i sličnog postotka. Trenutačno bih vjerojatno bio sretan kada bi u 2021. imali 20 % pada prometa u odnosu na 2019.

Gledajući prema budućnosti i planirajući, Split bi svakako bio učinkovitiji ako bi imao direktnu liniju prema većem europskom hubu, poput Münchena i Frankfurta, nego sad kad većina prometa ide kroz Zagreb. Što mislite, kolike su šanse da se Split tako poveže s nekim većim europskim hubom?

Mislim da to neće biti jednostavno, jer se Split nosi s mnoštvom sezonskog prometa. Lani su imali 720 tisuća putnika u srpnju, a 35 tisuća u veljači. Svaka kompanija koja bi na to pomišljala morala bi se baviti s tom sezonalnošću. To djelomično ulazi i u vaše pitanje o Croatia Airlinesu i zapravo ističe koliko je ta kompanija bitna za povezanost cijele zemlje. Tijekom ljeta, kad su svi avioni puni, svako može i želi letjeti za Hrvatsku, ali kad dođemo do listopada svi otkazuju letove jer postaju neprofitabilni i ostajete bez pola godine dok ne krene sljedeća sezona. Ako Split želi letove za München ili Frankfurt, to će koštati, i morat će pronaći program koji će pokriti gubitke kompanije od listopada do ožujka. Ako to uspiju napraviti, nešto će se možda dogoditi. Ako ne, ostat će status quo.

Najnovije vijesti iz svijeta avijacije možete pratiti na web stranici ch-aviation.

May 7, 2020 - How will the future of flights to Croatia look like in the post-corona world? TCN catches up with Max Oldorf, COO of the aviation data company, ch-aviation. 

One of the great uncertainties in a world of great uncertainty at the moment is how the future of travel will look, especially regarding air travel. Will airlines survive, will budget travel still be a big thing, and what about inter-continental travel? And how will flights to Croatia look like from key markets later this year, and next?

One man with better insight than most, both in terms of the aviation industry, as well as flights to Croatia, is Max Oldolf, one of the Swiss founders of ch-aviation, which provides industry data to airports, airlines and other clients all over the world. Oldorf is a regular visitor to Zagreb, as the company's largest subsidiary office is in the Croatian capital - you can learn more about it this TCN feature story. 

The aviation industry has gone through massive change in the last few months, and the effects will be felt for years. Let's look at how this will affect some of the major players in the Croatian market. Firstly, let's look at the inter-continental market, which Croatia has been developing in recent years.  American, Qatar (to Dubrovnik), Emirates, Air Canada - they have all postponed plans for 2020 until next year. Will they be back?

In general we need to accept that the world will look different from now on so I think we just have to live with a new normal. Some of these flights might come back in the next 2 years, some of them we will never see again. I think it is safe to say that we will see close to zero Intercontinental flights this year. If there will be no further waves, we might see some of them back next year already. But my suggestion is that there really needs to be a focus now on first getting domestic flights back, then Europe, and if that works fine the Intercontinental flights will follow at some point.

The UK and Scandinavian markets are important for Croatia. With Norwegian in trouble, Gatwick emptying, easyJet CEO saying they will come back 'like a startup' and Ryanair CEO saying if the government don't pay for the middle seat, Ryanair will not fly, things look pretty bleak. How will budget travel to Croatia form the UK and Scandinavia change? And what about price and frequency?

The only thing we really need to look at right now is if there will be a summer season in Croatia or not. I would say with the current developments the season should not be written off yet. A lot of people have had enough of the lockdown and are eager to travel the moment they are allowed to again. Volumes might be lower due to precautionary measurements or fear by some citizens, but in general all airlines will lift off again the moment they are allowed to and have passengers to transport.

On the prices, short-term we will see very good deals for travellers. Airlines will face significant overcapacity and Ryanair and Wizzair already announced that they will fight for each customer with low prices, so the next 1-2 years we will see a new price war on European skies until market shares are settled.

Give us a sentence on each of the following airlines, and what their post-corona relationship will be with Croatia in terms of flights and traffic.

Ryanair: Not worried about them at all. They will be back in full force shortly after stable flight operations are possible again. To my knowledge, Ryanair is keeping its fleet in full operational mode right now so they can start any time again.

easyJet: Even before the crisis, easyJet had a dispute within their shareholders if they might have grown too much in the last couple of years. Especially its founder Stelios is not happy with the growth and said a smaller easyJet might be more profitable. So the crisis now might put them back a bit but in general I am also not really worried about them, they will be back.

Norwegian: Norwegian is like the walking dead, only still alive because of their shareholders, leasing companies etc. gave them time for restructuring. Don’t count on them coming back to Croatia soon or at all.

Eurowings: I think they will be back similar to Ryanair and easyJet. Flying to Croatia is a part of their bread and butter leisure business so the moment demand picks up again they will fly.

Jet2: Same as with Eurowings.

Lufthansa: A different situation because they are focused on Hub connectivity to Frankfurt and Munich so they have more business passengers than holidaymakers. They might send smaller planes but they will send them for sure.

BA: Probably similar to Lufthansa, they might send smaller planes.

SAS: The airline used Corona now to do some much-needed restructuring, laying off staff etc. I think they will be back as well. But in which form remains to be seen.

Croatia Airlines post-corona. Discuss.

Croatia Airlines really showed during this crisis why it is important for a country to have a flag carrier. They provided the lifeline route to Frankfurt, flew to China to pick up PPE material, performed repatriation flights etc. Croatians can be really proud of its well-functioning airline in this crisis because it is something Croatia would have really struggled with if there would not have been a flag carrier.

They will also play a very crucial role now for the recovery of the Croatian economy given the fact that Croatia will have much better connectivity than other countries in the Region once border limits are lifted. But this is something the Adria Airways collapse already showed quite drastically. Adria collapsed and the pick up of their deserted routes from Ljubljana did not really happen. There were volume increases to the larger hubs but many direct connections were lost.

That’s why Croatia Airlines is so important for the development of Croatia, they provide direct connections no one else otherwise would provide. And also important they pay their taxes in Croatia, so while the government might need to support them from time to time, this money always comes back in form of taxes, added value within the country etc. The only thing Croatia Airlines really should do is to find a bigger partner so they can use synergies, drive costs down  etc. A good partner who challenges them to become better every day.

Similar to Swiss in Switzerland who is now owned by Lufthansa and who was too small to be profitable on its own but with a larger buying force in the back became unstoppable. I was actually super excited when it was announced that Aegean is interested in them. Aegean is a fantastic airline as well with a smart, lean business model that is capable of dealing with seasonality and even the fleets of these two airlines would be a 100% fit. So I really hope once all is over these talks resume. It would be a very good marriage.

Do you expect any airlines to enter or increase their presence in the Croatian market? Wizzair, for example, seems to be pretty active in the region. 

As with any crisis there are companies that will go out of business because they were sick before, and there are others that see huge opportunities now. Wizzair definitely is in the second group and they are now really pushing to win market shares. A Wizzair entry into Croatia would make absolute sense and they will probably do that if the airport fees come down to a competitive level.

A severe reduction in traffic has affected airports around the world. How much are Croatia's airports hurting? The concession for Zagreb has already been controversial. How do you think the situation will affect things?

Well, the situation for all airports is really bad, that’s why they will all fight like crazy to win traffic back. That’s what the Croatian airports need to prepare for now. They need to create competitive incentives and support programs for the airlines to continue serving Croatia making sure the traffic does not flow to other countries in the region.

How much traffic (%) less do you expect in 2021 compared to 2019 at Croatian airports?

I would say anything between -50% and similar is possible. Right now I would probably be happy if we see 20% less traffic in 2021 compared to 2019.

Looking forward and planning for the future, Split would be more effective if it connected directly with a major European hub such as Munich or Frankfurt, rather than most traffic via Zagreb. What do you think about the possibility of a deal to connect Munich or Frankfurt as a proper hub for Split? 

I think this will be very challenging as Split still deals with a lot of seasonality. Last year they had 720.000 passengers in July and 35.000 in February. So any airline looking into this will have to deal with the seasonality. It goes a bit into your question on Croatia airlines and underlines why Croatia Airlines is so important for the connectivity of the Country. In summer when the flights are full everyone can and will fly, but once you get to October everyone will stop operations because it becomes unprofitable and you are cut off for another half year until it picks up again. If Split wants to have this connectivity to Munich and Frankfurt it will come at a cost and they will have to create a program that will cover the airlines losses from October till March. If they are able to do that than we will see something happen. If not then the status quo will prevail.

You can follow the latest global aviation news on the ch-aviation website.

For the latest news on flights to Croatia, check out the dedicated TCN section. 

July 29, 2019 - They are the global leaders in the aviation data industry, have an expanding subsidiary in Zagreb, and they are looking for more talented Croatian staff. Meet ch-aviation. 

Croatia never ceases to amaze, all the more so for me when I stopped focusing 100% on tourism and started to explore what the world of Croatian business and entrepreneurship had to offer. 

It was quite extraordinary. I met a Syrian based in Vukovar employing 750 people, a Brit just outside Zagreb with the biggest baklava factory in Europe, and a Zagreb company which was a fintech global leader with foreign staff from no less than 24 countries, just as all Croatia's talent is emigrating. Extraordinary. 

And then there was ch-aviation. 

I first cam across the ch-aviation website about six years ago, and I was thrilled. Here was a bunch of very efficient Swiss guys posting the latest information about flight news before anyone else. Their knowledge of the seaplane situation was detailed. They became the easiest blogs of the week, and I was often first with the information almost every time. German Wings has announced five new summer routes to Croatia, that kind of thing. 

God Bless Switzerland and your efficiency and great work ethic. If only we had that in Croatia.

So imagine my surprise last year when I got an email from CEO Thomas Jaeger and CCO Max Oldorf saying that would be in Zagreb on a certain date and would like to meet. Zagreb? I thought to myself. Well, I guess if you are in the aviation business, it made sense to travel and keep in touch with the latest. We agreed a meeting place, after which Oldorf gave a GREAT TCN interview on why the seaplanes failed and whether or not they would fly again. 

And that's when I was amazed all over again, because it turns out that they are regular visitors to Zagreb, because the Croatian capital is their main subsidiary outside their Swiss base. They hired Croatian staff, then hired more, and as they continue with their rapid expansion, they are looking to hire even more. 

I went to visit them recently at their office in Zagreb, where CEO Jaeger and Chief Operating Officer Sanja Ples kindly agreed to tell me more. 

Aviation data - firstly tell us who you are, what you do, and who uses your services?

Thomas Jaeger: I started ch-aviation as a hobby in the small city of Chur in Switzerland more than 20 years ago – back in 1998. Now it is a bit of a hobby blown out of proportion as we have hundreds of customers around the globe, including airlines, airports, finance and leasing companies, aircraft manufacturers and maintenance organizations for example. Our subscriber list includes worldwide known brands such as Airbus, Fraport, Delta Air Lines, and DHL, but also many industry leading companies that are maybe less known to the general public like the largest aircraft lessor in the world, AerCap.

We are providing decision-makers in the airline industry with relevant and up-to-date airline intelligence and insightful news. We collect, process, verify and make available tons of data in an easy searchable form to industry stakeholders. On our website www.ch-aviation.com, we run an extensive IaaS (Information as a Service) business where people can subscribe to get access to our Airline Industry News and Data.

For example, we track more than 50,000 aircraft worldwide (that’s actually every commercial aircraft with more than 20 seats) and provide the most current and reliable database in the industry for our subscribers. Our customers are also able to access schedules, capacity data, airline and aircraft owner’s contact information and other industry related information.

The company is privately held, led by me and two other aviation professionals from Switzerland.

You are from Switzerland and are a global leader in your industry, and yet you chose to base your business in Zagreb, which is an interesting choice. Why?

Thomas Jaeger: We started our subsidiary in Zagreb back in 2016 and we saw a possibility to build large aviation data hub here. We are now employing almost 20 people here, mainly data researchers and analysts as well as our colleagues in sales. Our decision back then was based on the fact where we are able to find enough talent to work with aviation data and a place which is conveniently accessible from Switzerland and aviation hubs in Europe. Of course it also helped that Sanja, who runs the operations for us here in Zagreb, had been a customer of ours for many years already at the time and someone all of us personally knew well, so we also had a good base to start from in that sense.

How are things working out with a Croatian base?

Sanja Ples: I am more than satisfied with our investment so far having recruited more than 20 highly qualified people here. We see many well-educated Croatians who are eager to work in the fast-growing aviation industry. We are committed to our decision to grow here and we expect we will be able to grow our team in Zagreb.

Tell us about your staff. How many locals are working for you and how quickly are you expanding?

Sanja Ples: We opened our office in Zagreb back in 2016 and now we have close to 20 people working here. The aviation sector is growing tremendously worldwide, and we are able to grow our business, so we expect to grow our team by a third each year locally as well. We are constantly looking for data researchers and sales managers to join our growing team in Croatia.

Your experience of a primarily Croatian workforce so far? What are the pros and cons?

Thomas Jaeger: We are able to recruit high-quality people, especially young ones coming directly out of the universities, eager to learn and loving aviation. We do not expect to have a great pool of people with the aviation and research knowledge available to jump into our processes and start contributing on a high level immediately. And that is also a point where we struggle the most: finding experienced management for the Croatian entity which is still rapidly growing. So, we have to develop and foster our own middle management talents in-house and have done so very successfully.

The strict governmental employment regulations and high taxes are also amongst issues we are facing. After a certain paygrade level, the Croatian employees are getting much more expensive than their European counterparts and getting people to relocate to Zagreb from elsewhere in Europe is also rather difficult as a result. That limits the opportunity of having high paid jobs developing in Croatia. That is probably the most frustrating part of the growth process, especially as one can see a great pool of motivated and eager-to-learn youngsters that show a high level of loyalty to the company.

Several IT companies in Croatia have complained at how hard it is to find high-quality staff, as so many people are emigrating in search of better-paid opportunities. What is your experience, and how are you finding staff?

Thomas Jaeger: There is a similar issue with most of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe – it is natural people are always searching for better opportunities for them. At the same time this is an opportunity for us – thanks to our investment in Croatia we can offer a very good alternative to stay here.

Since we started the operations here in Zagreb, the workforce situation has changed a lot. In the first employment rounds, we have had a tremendous volume of applications to process and to choose from. It would be unfair to claim the situation was bad right now, but the volume has visibly dropped.

I understand that you are constantly on the lookout for bright new Croatian talent - what skills and experience should interested candidates possess?

Sanja Ples: First, we need to start from the basics – English is the language for the aviation business and fluency both oral and written is a must. Being in the data business, we are usually expecting our future employees to be able to manage large amounts of data, to be able collect, organize and evaluate data using critical thinking. And last, but not least, you need to have some passion for aviation to join this industry.

If you are looking to learn more about either job opportunities or the best aviation data, you can contact ch-aviation via the official website. 

To learn more about foreign entrepreneurs in Croatia, follow the dedicated TCN series.