March the 12th, 2020 - If you've been following us since the COVID-19 outbreak began, we've been translating and transmitting the musings of prominent and highly cited Croatian scientist Igor Rudan. Rudan is an extremely highly educated individual who has a vast knowledge of coronaviruses.

We bring you his latest statement, posted on Facebook, translated into English in full below:

''I was pleased to see today that my namesake, Igor Stagljar, has decided to stop making press statements about COVID-19, given the psychosis we're currently in. It's interesting that a leading world scientist in Toronto, such as Igor Stagljar, doesn't feel specialised enough to write about this topic. It's worth thinking about it a bit.

Yesterday, however, I received more than thirty requests for interviews from all over former Yugoslavia, because the article in Index.hr, regardless of its extreme length, has gone viral from Kranjska Gora to Gevgelija in the past 48 hours. It now has over 6,400 Facebook shares and is crawling slightly towards 200,000 views. Respect, Matija Babic, for giving it that level of exposure.

Let's think about this for a moment too: people across the former state [ex Yugoslavia] are being educated voluntarily and massively about something scientific. I'm pleased with this, of course, so I have nothing more to add through any interviews. If I have anything new to convey that could help and save people's lives, I'll write it here, so feel free to continue sharing it further.

Your reaction to my post yesterday "Panic, but in a moral way" and the messages I got in my inbox convinced me that there are still enough people in Croatia for whom it's worth clarifying things occasionally, so thank you all. Admittedly, I will no longer be able to be regular with these posts anymore, I'm back at work. Among other things, I'm editing the current issue of the Journal of Global Health on COVID-19. A dozen excellent new scientific papers have arrived, more than half of them from China, so I'm preparing a pandemic conference for the international press here in Edinburgh in one week or so.

For Croatia, I will occasionally comment on details that few people can intuitively understand unless they've specialised in this field. The role of the occasional event commentator isn't a problem for me. Moreover, I have agreed with Drazen Klaric to continue to do so from now on for my "mother ship'' - Vecernji list, which always has the right of priority for me because it taught me to read. I managed to come to terms with Drazen about conditions that aren't too stressful for me, so I will only write for one Croatian medium, and a day later I will share those posts here on Facebook.

Now let's raise the level from which we look at everything that is going on, to show you how depressing most of the discussions currently are in Croatia, and especially the division into the camps "this is a new plague" and "this is just a flu". I called this post "contrast is the mother of clarity." It will try to explain the issues that are VERY relevant to those in power who must make unprecedented political decisions in the next 48 hours.

Many wonder how I can be so laid back when I write and talk about this pandemic. But it's like someone who professionally demining minefields marvels leisurely as he strolls through them. He knows a bit about demining, while you, walking alone through a minefield, will think that every second is going to be your last. A similar thing is happening here now.

An epidemiologist is not afraid of an epidemic because he knows that any epidemic can be effectively suppressed, it's only a matter of drastic measures. That's what I said in my initial press statements - if the situation gets worse, we have at least a few more safety nets that we can activate. Today I will explain what I meant by that, because the time has come for that.

So, if it wanted to, Croatia could become the "world champion" in the fight against COVID-19. In less than two months, we could declare Croatia a coronavirus-free zone. The total number of cases would probably not exceed 1,000, and the death toll would indeed be very small. And that's why all the debate about the severity of COVID-19 symptoms and the flu has been aroused, because that's not what an epidemiologist primarily cares about. It is important for the epidemiologist to curb the epidemic. Any epidemic will be on a safe path towards extinction when every infected person infects on average less than one healthy person. Also, it will be on the safe path of exponential spread when every infected person infects, on average, MORE than one healthy person.

Without anti-epidemic measures, this new coronavirus spreads from every infected person to at least 2.2 new healthy subjects, predominantly in the incubation phase, while the infected person doesn't yet show any symptoms. All one has to do is reduce that number to below 1.0 and the epidemic will slowly be extinguished, which can be achieved by strict quarantine.

Read that again, because that's the key thing for epidemiologists. Otherwise, it could be said that rabies is "much more dangerous than the flu" because 100 percent of those infected with it die, and in a much worse way. But for the epidemiologist, it doesn't matter, because the last indigenous rabies case in Croatia was probably recorded in 1964. And for all hunters who are bitten by a rabid boar, fox or dog, immunoprophylaxis can be easily performed, so the epidemiologist knows what to do. So, it's already starting to go that way with coronavirus. We now know that we can suppress it with strict quarantine.

For an epidemiologist, more dangerous is the disease from which more people will die this year, no matter what symptoms they have before they die, they're not so concerned with that. And if we really want to, we can suppress and control coronavirus through strict quarantines, as the Chinese did for one sixth of the world's population, with fewer than 3,200 deaths currently per one billion and four hundred million people.

So, if Croatia were to decide today that it wanted to be the "world champion" in the fight against coronaviruses, it would have to apply the following measures to prevent the spread of the virus - we'll call it "extreme left and planned" measures. It should:

- completely close and control all borders, preventing anyone from entering and exiting;
- all Croatian citizens wishing to return to Croatia should be received but be quarantined for at least 30 days before being released to their homes (this is the longest incubation recorded);
- order everyone to stay in their houses and flats for the next two months (during which time all infected people would become ill and infect other people, until the virus no longer had anyone to transfer to and would thus disappear);
- only self-service shops and an absolute minimum of public services (heating plants, power plants, telecommunications, TV and radio) would operate;
- allow only the youngest member of the household to go to the self-service once every three days (the youngest, because children have the lowest risk of dying), wearing a mask and gloves, and only if they have no symptoms;
- arrange a neighbour to go and pick up things for all elderly people and then supply that person with a mask and gloves;
- almost all patients would be treated by mobile medical teams coming to households with portable respirators; efforts should be made at all costs to avoid bringing infected persons to hospitals, so as not to cause hospital outbreaks, which would have a much higher rate of death than community outbreaks;
- banks, mobile operators, and others should be instructed not to charge loan installments during those two months.

Here, with such radical measures and completely impermeable borders, Croatia would get rid of coronavirus probably within two months, given the current situation, with a truly minimal number of deaths. It's absolutely crucial to prevent the introduction of coronaviruses into non-infectious wards. This was the main cause of the horrific numbers [of those dying] from the outbreak of the epidemics in Wuhan and Lombardy.

However, like any interesting story, this one has its own unexpected twist. The consequences of such drastic measures for the national economy would be catastrophic. Two lost months of work, to become virus free before anything else, sometime in mid-May. Just in time for the tourist season. But the problem is that others would not have succeeded by then. That is why we'd still not be able to welcome anyone to Croatia. And so, the agony for the economy would continue all summer long.

And because of the catastrophe for the economy, the number of unemployed and illiquid people will increase, people will turn to alcoholism, be depressed, suffer from insomnia, marriages will fall apart, cancer and cardiovascular mortality rates will rise. Finally, those rescued from coronaviruses will suffer from diseases that will result from a new wave of poverty and recession. Only, these diseases and deaths will not happen in front of the cameras and nobody will blame those in power for them. And for literally every single coronavirus death - they will.

If you've followed all this by now, you'll understand that in this scenario, both outcomes are, in fact, bad. But by curbing the epidemic, government officials will appear more competent, and no one will later blame them for perhaps more deaths and problems that will later arise as a result of a recession.

Another extreme approach could be called "extremely neoliberal". At the moment, Donald Trump may be intensely thinking about it, but probably at least some other countries have it. Specifically, the virus can be allowed to spread freely. In doing so, as few people would be tested for the virus to minimise the number of deaths attributable to the coronavirus, especially among very old people. It would come to, perhaps, to a death rate of up to 1 percent among all those infected, but it would save the economy and avoid that "subsequent wave" of deaths. Because in this extreme scenario, mostly older people would die. This would, from some radically neoliberal point of view, even "unburden" pension funds and the health system. Many people in the most productive age for society, who would otherwise be the majority victims of the recession, would be saved.

The problem with this approach, however, is that there should be accuracy in estimating how many people will die, that is, to gamble with the certainty that scientists have in the rate of death from a virus in the community. I estimate that it is 0.5 to 1 percent, which puts it just outside the margins around which such an approach can be considered, and that the death toll from the epidemic roughly corresponds to the estimated number of post-recession deaths.

It's possible that Trump is currently awaiting reports from American soil about these death rates and wants to have as much security in them as possible. This is like a chess game with China for him. But he came across an unforeseen obstacle, which is that with this strain of the virus in Italy, it seems like something is wrong. Perhaps that's why Trump ordered the suspension of Europeans' entry into the US today, with the exception of the British.

He may have a plan that makes him look smarter than anyone, but he knows he needs to be sure that "their" virus in the US kills less than 1 percent of those infected, with the potential to gamble on the possibility of the virus disappearing in late spring. But it bothers him, like all of us, that no one is sure of the death rate for this ''Italian'' virus. So, things are a bit more complicated than most Croatian experts on Facebook think.

Trump's biggest problem, however, is the media and the public reaction. And the worst possible choice is to hesitate between these two extremes, so deciding to "not act" and letting the virus spread greatly, but when people start to die, under pressure from the public and the media, the introduction of quarantine is too late. Because, then, it would be a disaster for both the economy and for public health. A lot of people would die and the quarantines would last much longer after such a decision, until the virus disappeared.

I've already estimated for Croatia that the "extreme left and planned" approach would immediately and now be able to stem the epidemic in our country, maybe only up to a thousand cases and with a small number of deaths, if everything went perfectly according to plan - this is the ideal, "best case scenario'' for Croatia. However, over time, several thousand people would later die indirectly as a result of the economic recession. They would probably be middle-aged and older, and would be saved from coronavirus by perhaps the same number of average elderly people. The economy would be put into reverse, but the media would rate the moves of those in power favourably.

On the other hand, the "extreme neoliberal" approach of allowing the virus to freely spread would be met with strong condemnation by the media and the public in Croatia. Thousands of people could die from the epidemic, but life would go on. Instead of about 60,000 deaths in 2020, Croatia would have about 70,000 deaths. But only on condition that we've accurately estimated the death rate of the virus and that nothing goes unforeseen.

The decision of Croatia's ruling bodies, but also those of other countries, will be somewhere between these two extreme approaches - rigorous quarantine and a complete failure to act. I think this second extreme is becoming an increasingly unlikely choice because of such an intense media focus on the pandemic. This is why many European countries are now looking at each other and waiting for what and when to do it, because it's not an easy decision.

I hope that you now understand what the current issues are which are important to people who have to make decisions over the next two or three days that will determine the lives of all of us over the coming months. Two scenarios, thirty hours. Like in a movie.''

This text was written by Igor Rudan and translated by Lauren Simmonds

For rolling information and updates in English on coronavirus in Croatia, as well as other lengthy articles written by Croatian epidemiologist Igor Rudan, follow our dedicated section.

The latest COVID-19 update for Croatia is here, which includes Serbian-Croatian border closures, a ban on gatherings of more than 100 people and the negative effects on the Zagreb Stock Exchange.

As Index writes on the 12th of March, 2020, civil protection met with the Prime Minister yesterday and decided to introduce new coronavirus measures. As of tomorrow, schools are closing in Istria and there will be no classes taking place. Civil protection should consider a proposal today and also ban all gatherings of more than a hundred people in Croatia.

This morning, another COVID-19 update has arrived based on announcements from Serbian Prime Minister Vucic that Serbia is closing some of its border crossings with Croatia. According to the report from the Osijek-Baranja Police Directorate, Batina was closed for all traffic at 07:00 this morning, HAK reported.

According to Zoran Kon, spokesman for the Osijek-Baranja Police Department, the Batina-Bezdan border crossing, the Erdut-Bogojevo railway bridge and the Apatin river crossing were all closed.

In addition to its border with the Republic of Croatia, the Serbs will be closing more border crossings with Bosnia and Herzegovina as of today. The closures already implemented took effect at 07:00 this morning.

Checks being undertaken at border crossings have been increased, meaning that longer waiting for passengers, especially for freight vehicles, is possible, HAK warned.

Another COVID-19 update comes in the form of a session of the Parliamentary Committee on gender equality which was due to be held on Thursday being postponed until further notice for "epidemiological reasons" because the number of those interested in attending the session was more than a hundred.

Croatian Health Minister Vili Beros announced at a government session a new measure to curb the spread of coronavirus, which recommends delaying or restricting gatherings of more than a hundred people. In presenting the measures on Thursday, the recommendation was to postpone any organised gatherings due to be attended by more than 100 people.

The holding of various sport competitions without spectators was also suggested.

A meeting that took place on Wednesday at Banski Dvori also brings us another important COVID-19 update as the introduction of new measures already touched on in this article was confirmed, schools will be closed in Istria as of Friday and there will be no classes taking place.

According to the latest data, a total of 431 people were tested in Croatia this morning, of which nineteen are positive.

The Zagreb Stock Exchange has seen a drop of more than ten percent and trading has been discontinued.

Eventim HR has launched a separate tab on its website called "COVID-19 EVENT INFORMATION", which contains all information about delayed events and information related to the government's previous recommendation to postpone all organised rallies with more than 1000 people.

The chief adviser to the Minister of Education, Marko Kosicek, said that schools were yesterday instructed on how to prepare for virtual classes if coronavirus causes them to be closed, and stressed that they must make that preparation.

Minister Tomislav Coric says that persons spreading false news about coronaviruses should be held criminally responsible, and Interior Minister Davor Bozinovic and Justice Minister Drazen Bosnjakovic then announced an investigation into such individuals.

For rolling information on COVID-19 updates, follow TCN's dedicated section.

March 11, 2020 - The management of the Croatian Football Federation (HNS) has adopted a new measure aimed at protecting spectators, clubs, players and competitions during the coronavirus outbreak.

The statement from the Croatian Football Federation is transmitted in full below:

“Taking into account the emerging circumstances regarding the epidemic of the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, today the leading people of the HNS and the relevant bodies of the Federation have re-analyzed the current situation and decided that all matches in competitions under the jurisdiction of the HNS will be played without spectators until March 31.

The new measure applies to the HT First League, Croatian Cup, 2. HNL, 3. HNL, 1. HNLŽ, 2. HNLŽ, 1. HMNL, 2. HMNL and all youth leagues under the auspices of HNS, as well as the upcoming UEFA qualifying matches that take place in Croatia.

In these competitions, only teams with their staff, senior management and officials of clubs and HNS, technical staff and a certain number of media representatives will be able to attend the matches until further notice, with all the usual measures for organizing matches.

The HNS also recommends that all county associations take the same measure in competitions under their jurisdiction.

As before, the HNS will closely monitor the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus epidemic and, if necessary, determine other measures to which the football family and the public will be informed in due time. The decision shall enter into force immediately and shall be valid until March 31 or the end of the representative break. The Federation will make a timely decision to continue or discontinue this measure, taking into account developments, recommendations from public health institutions, and considering, above all, the health of spectators, football players and all other actors in football.

You can find the Croatia Football Federation's statement in Croatian here.

To read more about sport in Croatia, follow TCN’s dedicated page.

Croatian ministers Zdravko Maric, Gari Cappelli, Davor Bozinovic, Darko Horvat and Josip Aladrovic, as well as HUP, HGK and HBOR leaders sat down to discuss coronavirus' effects on the economy.

As Novac writes on the 11th of March, 2020, the Croatian Ministry of Finance held a meeting with representatives of the Croatian Employers' Association, the Croatian Chamber of Commerce and the Croatian Development Bank to discuss measures to counteract the impact of coronavirus on the economy and finances.

After the meeting, Finance Minister Zdravko Maric said that the meeting was a success and that he was pleased that all sectors had successfully cooperated.

''We all agreed that the first and basic variable that must be taken care of is precisely the preservation of jobs, but also the liquidity of all sectors. We all remember, not so long ago, when we were faced with a huge fall in jobs and how long it took to get things back to normal,'' said Maric, adding that such a scenario should not be repeated.

''We must also ensure an adequate flow of goods so that all companies can function normally. We've started creating framework measures that we will eventually all implement together,'' the minister said.

The Minister of Finance added that the consequences of the epidemic in Croatia are not yet ''catastrophic'', but also that no one can estimate how long this crisis will last or how much of an effect it will ultimately have on the economy.

''We started preparing the measures on time and we all agreed that safeguarding jobs is paramount, both in tourism that is at our door and in other sectors,'' said Cappelli of the meeting of Croatian ministers.

Numerous people in the hotel industry, as well as those in the hospitality sector, according to Cappelli, have already started preparing future staff, and for this reason we must show them that the situation is being monitored and assistance measures are being taken into account.

''We're also sending a message to our foreign partners that we can keep everything under control and that tourists can feel safe with us,'' he added.

HUP Director General Davor Majetic explained that he was pleased that they had found a common language with those in power at the meeting with Croatian ministers.

''The first objective, of course, is to provide adequate care for people's health, followed by car for jobs and business activity. I'm glad we started a very open conversation,'' he said.

Maric emphasised once again that the most important thing was that those in power, as well as the representatives of the private sector, have started to develop a crisis plan on time.

''As the situation develops, we'll adapt as such. We'll try to anticipate all the possible threats that the crisis will cause,'' said Maric once again, adding that the most important thing is to secure wage payments and job retention, and that they don't want to compare Croatia with other countries. Among other things, he said another meeting among Croatian ministers would be held next week.

He also said that already in the existing tax system, they have introduced a delay in the repayment of loans in crisis situations, and that on that same line, they plan to work on measures for all those affected by coronavirus. In addition, he added that there was a possibility of introducing further tax relief to entrepreneurs.

''We hope to have some more concrete proposals for the measures next week,'' Majetic added.

Make sure to follow our dedicated lifestyle page for more.

For the latest March 20 update click here.

March 11, 2020 - There are 19 confirmed cases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Croatia, 3 of whom are in serious condition. Foreign nationals entering Croatia from infection hotspots (China, Italy, Iran, South Korea) will be subject to a 14-day quarantine, while a 14-day self-isolation is required for Croatian citizens.

Yesterday, the Civil Protection Staff of Croatia recommended cancelling all events for over 1,000 people. Several upcoming events have been cancelled. Updates to follow.

More than 4,585 people are dead from the virus, which originated in Wuhan City, China; and over 124,968 cases have been confirmed globally. There are 44,178 cases outside of mainland China and 12,462 in Italy. 

*Follow this page for updates on the coronavirus in Croatia from Total Croatia News. Contact numbers for epidemiologists, travel advisories and measures for preventing the spread of the coronavirus can be found here.

Nineteen Coronavirus Cases in Croatia

As of March 11, 2020; nineteen coronavirus (COVID-19) patients have been reported in Croatia: 5 in Rijeka, 8 in Zagreb, 4 in Varaždin and 2 in Pula.

• The first patient from Zagreb became infected during his stay in Italy. The two other patients are close contacts. The third patient recently returned from a ski trip in Austria. The fourth patient is a hairdresser and recently came back from a conference in Munich. Three new cases were confirmed Wednesday evening. The latest patients returned from trips to Austria and Germany.
• A patient from Rijeka became infected during his stay in Italy. The four other patients are close contacts. 
• The first patient from Varaždin spent time in Italy. The second case is a truck driver who had been in Italy and was in preventative self-isolation. The third and fourth cases are close contacts of the driver.
• Both patients in Pula had recently returned from Italy.

UPDATED: March 11, 2020 20:00 CET (Central European Time)

Croatia National Civil Protection Headquarters Update

Prime Minister Plenkovic convened an emergency meeting with the ministers and members of the Civil Protection Staff of Croatia today at 16:00 CET regarding further measures and activities for handling the spread of the coronavirus in Croatia. The regular press conference, which is held every day at 16:00 CET at the National Civil Protection Headquarters, was not held today.

Instead, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic convened a special meeting with the ministers and members of the Civil Protection Staff of Croatia, which ended at 18:00 CET. They held a special press conference after that meeting.

Istria Schools Close Friday: Classes Will be Televised

He confirmed that there will be no more live classes in Istria schools as of Friday.

"The schools will be open tomorrow and the staff will come in to prepare a plan. We are preparing online classes which will be a substitute for live classes. In order to continue the educational process cycle from Monday with online classes, an agreement is being made with HRT (Croatia Radio Television), and Channel 3 would be used to broadcast classes. Other classes will be recorded on video. In Istria, there will be no classes after Friday, and the directors will inform the parents and children about everything else. Tomorrow will be a transition day to prepare for the necessary measures.

No Need to Rebalance State Budget

Plenkovic said there was no need to rebalance the state budget that at this time.

"The aim is to preserve jobs. We will seek initiatives that help entrepreneurs maintain the liquidity of their business, as there will be challenges in this area. We will find options and consider legislation to ease the situation for entrepreneurs and anyone who may be affected by the crisis. Regarding the budget, everything is fine and our revenues for January, February and March are as expected." the Prime Minister said.

"I believe that we have taken the measures in time which the public is aware of. The Ursula Von Der Leyen Commission is prepared to fund every EU country. There are about 25 billion EUR available and this will have an impact the budget framework over the next seven years," Plenkovic added.

Italy Will Accept Citizens Return from Split Ancona Ferry

Minister Bozinovic said that Italy would accept the return of its citizens back from the Split-Ancona ferry and the rest would be quarantined in Split.

Croatian Health Service Has the Capacity: Beros

Minister Beros said we have the necessary capacity. "We have over 500 respirators and over 300 transports. I hope that the threat is not so great that we even have to use a portion of that capacity," he said.

Croatia and Regional Daily Updates

18:30 - The first male coronavirus patient in Italy, a 38-year-old from Codogno, is gradually recovering. He was taken off his respirator yesterday and began to breathe on his own.

18:13 - In the last 24 hours, 196 people have died in Italy. Another 2313 people were infected, Italian officials said.

18:00 - In Serbia, all events with more than 100 people have been banned, but there is no need to close schools yet, state leaders and health experts have decided. Parliamentary elections scheduled for April 26 may be delayed.

17:33 - WHO declares the coronavirus a pandemic.

17:24 - Two more people from Istria are suspected of having the coronavirus, according to the Istria County Civil Protection Headquarters. They are currently self-isolated and test results are expected tomorrow.

16:50 - Karlovac High School is under supervision as a female student may have the coronavirus infection.

16:34 - Lufthansa cancels 23,000 flights between March 29 and April 24. Most are in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

16:00 - Andrej Plenkovic convened a meeting with the ministers and members of the Civil Protection Staff of Croatia, which was held today at 16:00 CET. The daily press conference was cancelled.

15:28 - About 30 trucks have been waiting at the Croatian-Slovenian border for seven hours for a sanitary inspector. Read more.

15:25 - The Montenegrin government will not introduce a state of emergency due to the coronavirus. There are no confirmed cases in Montenegro

15:20 - Forty passengers who arrived on the Marco Polo ferry from Ancona this morning will be quarantined in Split at the Zagreb Hotel in Duilovo. Among them are 12 Croats who could not fulfil the conditions for self-isolation at home.

14:40 - Plenkovic has cancelled all HDZ pre-election rallies due to the coronavirus.

14:21 - 57 infected in Slovenia. 10 new infections have been reported.

2270 people have been tested. 27 people were infected in Ljubljana, 12 in Dolenjska and Bela krajina, 3 in Styria, 3 in the coastal area and one in Murska Sobota.

13:52 - None of the Italian citizens from the Ancona ferry have entered the quarantine in Split. They will likely decide to return to Italy.

13:50 - Istria mayors demand that classes in all schools in the County of Istria be terminated.

13:35 - Many events in Croatia have been postponed and cancelled.

13:11 - Serbia bans all gatherings of over 100 people. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announces that all gatherings indoors over 100 people are prohibited - matches, weddings.

12:20 - Bosnia and Hercegovina closed all schools and colleges for at least 2 weeks.

11:58 - 47 people are infected in Slovenia. Fran Albrecht Primary School in Kamnik near Ljubljana is closing because the teacher is among the infected. The school is closed for 14 days.

11:55 - Croatian Minister of Science and Education Blazenka Divjak reported that online classes were ready, if necessary.

11:25 - Austria has stopped all passenger rail service to Italy. In Austria, 131 cases of coronavirus have been reported.

11:05 - The border police of Bosnia and Herzegovina confirmed a ban on foreign citizens coming from countries hardest hit by the coronavirus.

This ban applies to nationals of Italy, Iran, South Korea, and parts of China including people coming from Hubei province where the epidemic erupted.

11:02 - “A Week of Rest is Worthwhile” (Tjedan odmora vrijedan) is cancelled. The Croatia Tourist Board planned a promotion to popularize travel within Croatia and reduce the impact of coronavirus on the tourism industry by offering 50 percent discounts to Croatian citizens.

11:00 - Although numerous events are being cancelled throughout Europe, as well as Croatia, the HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union) has not given up on its campaign for party elections.

10:07 - Health Minister Beros said he was considering closing the Croatian border,

9:30 - Jadrolinija (largest Croatia ferry service) has just discontinued traffic with Italy.

8:40 - Labin has introduced special measures that postpone everything. They also closed the cinema, the library, and are restricting funerals.

8:05 - Seven new cases of infection have been confirmed in Serbia. The total number of coronavirus infected in Serbia has increased from 5 to 12.

7:25 - 16^th coronavirus infection in Croatia. He is a hairdresser who was in Munich for a conference.

Certificate Required to Enter Slovenia from Italy

Slovenia began monitoring the border with Italy, and all non-Slovenian citizens or permanent residents are subject to controls when entering the country.

Foreign travellers will be required to furnish written confirmation that they are not infected with the coronavirus. The certificate must be in Slovenian, English or Italian and must not be older than three days.

(Updates provided by Index)

Live World Coronavirus Updates

• Live world updates from CNN here.
• Live world updates from The Guardian here.
• Live world updates from Al Jazeera here.

Live Health Organization Coronavirus Updates

• Live updated international map tracking spread of coronavirus from Johns Hopkins CSSE here.
• Live updates from the World Health Organization (WHO) here.
• Live updates from the Croatian Institute of Public Health (daily updates at 15:00 CET in Croatian) here.

Total Croatia News Coronavirus Coverage

• HNS Confirms: All Croatian League Football Games Without Fans until March 31 - here.
• Croatian Ministers State Coronavirus Consequences Aren't Catastrophic "Yet" - here.
• Coronavirus Flight Cancellation Status for Croatia: easyJet, Norwegian, Ryanair, Eurowings, British Airways - here.
• Plenković: Transport Sector and Tourism Hardest Hit by Coronavirus Epidemic - here.
• Croatian Tourism Industry Already Feeling Coronavirus Consequences - here.
• Croatian Tourism Ministry Temporarily Halting All Marketing Actions Due to Coronavirus - here.

UPDATED: March 11, 2020 20:00 CET (Central European Time)

For the latest March 20 update click here.

*Follow this page for updates on the coronavirus in Croatia from Total Croatia News. Contact numbers for epidemiologists, travel advisories and measures for preventing the spread of the coronavirus can be found here.

For the latest March 20 update click here.

March 10, 2020 - There are 15 confirmed cases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Croatia, 3 of whom are in serious condition. President of the Civil Protection Staff Davor Bozinovic said on Monday that foreign nationals entering Croatia from infection hotspots (China, Italy, South Korea) will be subject to a mandatory 14-day quarantine. Croatian citizens will receive an order for a 14-day self-isolation. 

They also recommended postponing rallies attended by more than 1,000 people.

More than 4,088 people are dead from the virus, which originated in Wuhan City, China; and over 116,166 cases have been confirmed globally. There are 35,409 cases outside of mainland China and 9,172 in Italy. 

*Follow this page for updates on the coronavirus in Croatia from Total Croatia News. Contact numbers for epidemiologists, travel advisories and measures for preventing the spread of the coronavirus can be found here.

Fifteen Coronavirus Cases in Croatia

As of March 10, 2020; fifteen Coronavirus (COVID-19) patients have been reported in Croatia: 5 in Rijeka, 4 in Zagreb, 4 in Varaždin and 2 in Pula.

• The first patient is from Zagreb who became infected during his stay in Italy (Milan, Lombardy province). The two other patients from Zagreb are close contacts of the first patient. The third Zagreb patient recently returned from a ski trip in Austria.
• A patient from Rijeka became infected during a stay in Italy (Parma). The four other patients from Rijeka are close contacts of the third patient. 
• The first patient from Varaždin stayed in Milan with three friends. The second confirmed case from Varaždin is a truck driver who had been in Italy and was in preventative self-isolation. The third and fourth Varaždin cases are close contacts of the driver.
• In Pula, two cases of the coronavirus infection were confirmed yesterday evening and today. Both had worked in Italy and are currently hospitalized. 

UPDATED: March 10, 2020 19:00 CET (Central European Time)

Croatia National Coronavirus Update 

At 16:00 CET the National Civil Protection Headquarters held their daily press conference, led by Ministers Davor Bozinovic and William Beros who provided updates on the coronavirus.

In addition to discovering another confirmed case of the coronavirus in Croatia, they also announced that all Italians will be quarantined if they decide to enter Croatia, regardless of which Italian region they arrive from.

"As of today, quarantine measures are being implemented for everyone coming from Italy. This is because Italy has declared a quarantine throughout the country," Bozinovic said.

"Our daily conversation was obviously well received in the field. I think everyone realized that events larger than 1000 people should not be held. This does not apply smaller gatherings. They must ensure high hygiene standards and follow the HZJZ instructions. There are many events which are postponed and I think that's good," Bozinovic pointed out.

Croatian Schools Stay Open

“Of course, not all counties are equally exposed. So far, there has been no need to make a recommendation (to close schools)," Bozinovic explained.

"There isn’t any reported transmission on the local level, so we believe that there is no need to close schools, colleges and kindergartens. If the situation changes, we will act accordingly," said Krunoslav Capak the head of the HZJZ.

Bozinovic Explains Consequences of Lying About Travel

"These people could be criminally prosecuted for misdemeanors. The penalty for a misdemeanor is from 3,000 to 8,000 HRK (397 to 1060 EUR). Sanitary inspectors would be accompanied by police when making a report and would ensure that the person is quarantined," Bozinovic said.

"Since we brought the measure to the Italians yesterday from the focus of the epidemic, about 20 people have turned back. As of today, it is important that all Italian citizens know that they will be quarantined (in Croatia) or they must go home," Capak explained.

Passengers on Dubrovnik Planes and Ancona Ferry Subject to Measures

"There were 149 reported passengers and 100 of them have cancelled their flight. You know that at this time of year, the average number of entries from Italy is around 500. There were 193 yesterday. We assume that this number will be even lower tomorrow," Bozinovic said. He added that the passengers on the ferry, which is due to arrive from Ancona tomorrow, will be subject to the same protective measures as road and air travelers.

Croatia Civilian HQs Have Opted for Additional Restrictions

Split-Dalmatia County decided to suspend rallies over 1,000 people. They went a step further in Istria.

"By the decision of the headquarters, all public, cultural and sporting events in Istria, regardless of who is the organizer or the type of event, are suspended until April 14," explained Chief of Istrian Staff Dino Kozlevac, adding that border police and sanitary inspection are implementing measures at the border.

Croatia and Regional Daily Updates

19:00 - 15 Coronavirus cases in Croatia. The 4th Zagreb patient recently returned from a ski trip in Austria.

18:34 - Fifth case of coronavirus infection confirmed in Serbia.

18:26 - In the last 24 hours, 168 people have died from the coronavirus in Italy.

17:55 - Slovenia is closing its borders with Italy, Slovenia's Prime Minister announced.

16:32 - The civil protection headquarters has released new details on the coronavirus in Croatia, and new measures are being introduced.

16:19 - Authorities in the Republika Srpska decided to close all schools in the area and introduce a measure banning all planned mass gatherings.

Entity Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic told reporters in Banja Luka that primary and secondary schools will be closed by March 21, and the decision applies to all RS colleges. Kindergartens will not be closed for the time being, but health monitoring of these facilities will be increased.

All public gatherings are prohibited until March 30. Four cases of coronavirus infection have been confirmed in the RS so far.

There is no decision to close schools in that in the Federation of Bosnia and Hercegovina, but a ban on visits to hospitals and social care institutions and recommendations to cancel mass rallies are in effect.

16:15 - 14 Coronavirus infections have been confirmed in Croatia.

15:45 - A plane from Rome was scheduled to land at Dubrovnik Airport at 16:15 CET.

From Dubrovnik Airport, Dulist learns that they have followed all the instructions issued by the National Civil Protection Headquarters.

15:19 - Slovenia bans indoor gatherings with more than 100 people. The ban, however, does not apply to shopping malls, smaller establishments, weddings, funerals and religious ceremonies.

15:16 - British Airways has canceled flights to and from Italy.

15:05 - The Republika Srpska has closed all schools, there are no classes until further notice.

14:55 - St. Peter's Square and Basilica of St. Peter's were closed to the public due to the epidemic, said the Vatican.

14:45 - According to Slovenian Television, three patients with visible signs of infection came to a local ambulance in the third largest Slovenian city and alarmed healthcare staff and patients in the waiting room.

14:40 - One person suspected of being positive for coronavirus as of yesterday is in isolation at a Sibenik hospital. Findings are pending.

14:35 - In Dubrovnik, they expect a 30-40 percent weaker tourist season during the first six months, and the number of arrivals and nights is already declining. The city claims that daily bookings are 45 percent lower than in the same period last year.

14:30 - Slovenes criticised Croatia at the end of February because of the measures they introduced. They have a lot more infections than Croatia.  

14:06 - 31 infected with the coronavirus in Slovenia.

13:41 - The Serbian government has temporarily banned entry to the country by foreign nationals coming from areas with high transmission of the coronavirus infection - from Italy, hotspots in China, South Korea, Iran and parts of Switzerland.

13:23 - Five cases of the coronavirus infection have been reported throughout Bosnia, of which only one is in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, or in Zenica, and the rest are in Republika Srpska. These are members of two families whose fathers work in Italy and they have been carriers of the virus.

13:13 - The Istrian Institute of Public Health on Tuesday issued special recommendations to prevent the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, which further postpones all outdoor and indoor gatherings, from children's events and birthdays to sports, cultural, business, excursions and other events.

The decision was made after the first case of coronavirus disease was confirmed in Istria yesterday and due to the rapid spread of the epidemic in neighboring Italy.

13:10 - Ferry from Italian Ancona arrives in Split tomorrow, all passengers will be screened.

14:44 - Split and the County forbid gatherings of more than 1,000 people.

Although the National Civil Protection Headquarters yesterday issued a decision recommending the postponement of public gatherings with more than 1,000 people, the Split-Dalmatia County headquarters decided to ban all gatherings of more than 1,000 people in the county.

12:41 - As of today, Croatia Airlines temporarily suspends flights from Zagreb to Rome and vice versa.

12:33 - Austria bans indoor gatherings of over 100 people and outdoor gatherings of over 500 people.

Anyone who arrives from Italy is also forbidden to enter the country, except those who are medically certified to be healthy.

11:57 - In Italy, 463 people have died, and in terms of numbers infected, Italy has the highest coronavirus mortality rate in the world.

11:55 - Several measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus are being introduced in EU countries and more flights to Italy are canceled.

11:45 - Due to the new situation in Italy, where preventive quarantine has been extended to the entire country due to the spread of coronavirus, the Slovenian company HIT from Nova Gorica has closed some of its casinos along the border, in which Italians are the most frequent guests.

11:25 - Davor Huic, president of the Lipa Taxpayers Association,  commented on N1 television regarding the possibility of a recession due to the emergence of coronaviruses and what measures Croatia could take.

11:15 - Speaker of the European Parliament David Sassoli has announced that he will be performing his duty from home preventively in the next two weeks, as he was in Italy last week, the hardest hit by the coronavirus.

10:01 - Malta has suspended all passenger lines with Italy.

8:25 - Two new cases of infection have been confirmed in Serbia, with a total of four.

8:03 - There is considerable chaos in Italy and renewed fear that food supplies might disappear. Footage arriving from Rome shows huge rows of citizens with carts waiting to enter the supermarket late at night. Coronavirus riots have erupted in several prisons in Italy.

(Updates provided by Index)

Live World Coronavirus Updates

• Live world updates from CNN here.
• Live world updates from The Guardian here.
• Live world updates from Al Jazeera here.

Live Health Organization Coronavirus Updates

• Live updated international map tracking spread of coronavirus from Johns Hopkins CSSE here.
• Live updates from the World Health Organization (WHO) here.
• Live updates from the Croatian Institute of Public Health (daily updates at 15:00 CET in Croatian) here.

UPDATED: March 10, 2020 19:00 CET (Central European Time)

For the latest March 20 update click here.

*Follow this page for updates on the coronavirus in Croatia from Total Croatia News. Contact numbers for epidemiologists, travel advisories and measures for preventing the spread of the coronavirus can be found here.

As Index writes on the 9th of March, 2020, prominent Croatian scientist and epidemiologist Igor Rudan, wrote a comprehensive text for Index in which he answered twenty key questions about coronavirus (COVID-19). Croatian scientist Igor Rudan is a member of the Royal Society of Edinburgh and the founder of the 21st Century School.

Here are twenty questions and answers on coronavirus from a highly respected and cited Croatian scientist. We have translated and transmitted Igor Rudan's text for Index in full:

''In this text, I've summarised the issues that I see most often lead to misunderstandings or cause some confusion about the new COVID-19 pandemic. I've offered all of these answers from the perspective of a scientist who has been involved in this field internationally for two decades. My answers seek to offer a view that is scientifically based on the data which is currently available about this pandemic, as well as the experience of previous epidemics and pandemics caused by respiratory viruses.

However, I'd like to emphasise the fact that there is still a number of ambiguities regarding the new COVID-19 pandemic and that scientists are closely monitoring its development and gathering new evidence, which is why this pandemic needs to be taken seriously and adhered to by all public health experts. In the event of this situation worsening, one should also be prepared for preventive public health measures such as avoiding public gatherings and quarantines at home.

1. Is this one of "those" infectious diseases that will decimate us and which will take its place in history?

The history of the genus ''Homo'' and the dozen human species we know of today through excavation was determined by the fight against infectious diseases. It's likely that the species that are no longer around today are largely extinct due to the spread of infectious diseases. We should be happy that we no longer live in the times of great epidemics and pandemics that once decimated our species. A huge number of people died during their childhood or youth.

The most severe medieval infections killed up to every third person, and before the discovery of the microscope, people couldn't even know why it was happening to them. No one thought that tiny, invisible, living microbes could cause these diseases. People assumed that some heavenly punishment for their sins had come upon them. We should, therefore, be happy because we're living in the age of this advancement of science and medicine.

Since 1940, many bacterial diseases have begun to be controlled by antibiotics, and since 1960, many virus and bacterial diseases have had vaccines developed for them. Unfortunately, we don't have a vaccine for all infectious diseases. As we see in the example of this pandemic, new viruses continue to transfer over from other species to us because history hasn't ended with the advent of our generation but instead it just continues.

2. Could science have expected the COVID-19 pandemic?

It could have, because this is already the seventh coronavirus to try to make itself at home within the human population, trying to adapt to us and use us as its reservoir. Specifically, we exist together on a small blue-brown planet in a vast dark universe. We share it with tens of millions of other species. They all strive to survive until further notice. More than 99 percent of all species that have ever existed on Earth have failed to survive to this day. That is why viruses must constantly transfer themselves to new species and thus expand their reservoirs. They must choose the winning species because they can't reproduce on their own. Their survival depends on the survival of the species that is their reservoir.

People are currently an interesting potential viral reservoir. We're expanding and multiplying rapidly - from about a billion and a half individuals, we've grown to about seven and a half billion in the last 130 years alone. In doing so, we're penetrating territories, clearing forests, draining wetlands, hunting for pleasure, reducing overall biodiversity, making it difficult for others to survive, while there are more and more of us. Fortunately for all of us, the first four human-adapted coronaviruses were merely the cause of common colds. No one considered them a serious threat to public health.

3. Were SARS and MERS a serious threat?

SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle Eastern acute respiratory syndrome) were a real and big surprise for scientists and experts. Specifically, these were respiratory viruses from the coronavirus family, the fifth and sixth that were able to pass over to humans. Surprisingly, instead of colds, they could have caused very severe, fatal pneumonia. In addition, the death rate among those infected with both diseases was truly frightening. Both could have caused a horrible amount of death of humans if, by chance, it had spread to the world's entire population.

The coronavirus that caused SARS had its reservoir in bats, which hibernate in caves in winter. Then, no one hunts or consumes them. However, it did manage to transfer over to an animal from the cat family, a civet. It was also contracted by a man, a farmer in Guangdong province, in late 2002, from a civet. SARS then spread to more than twenty countries and infected more than 8,000 people, with every tenth person confirmed to be infected. It was the fifth human coronavirus, but it was the first to kill humans.

Ten years later, in 2012, the MERS coronavirus appeared in Saudi Arabia. It was passed on to humans from the camels in the desert. It has also spread to more than twenty countries, infecting about 2500 people and every third infected person died. So, MERS had a really scary mortality rate. The advent of MERS showed us that SARS was not some isolated incident with a coronavirus that we can just forget, but that coronaviruses have become our most significant potential enemy. If SARS or MERS had spread around the world and infected billions of people, it would have been a catastrophe unlike anything from the last century or two, that is, in popular culture, it would've been called the "zombie apocalypse."

4. How did MERS and SARS manage to be dealt with so quickly considering the fact that they were so dangerous?

In those two cases, we were actually very lucky. Namely, a completely new virus that tries to transfer over to the human species can spread in humans in three basic ways. These ways depend on our ability to deal with epidemic surveillance. Once the virus enters the human body, it begins to multiply in the kind of specialised cells that it has been able to bind to. In the case of coronaviruses, these are the cells of the respiratory system. It multiplies in them by "hacking" its cellular genetic instruction and using that "machinery" to build proteins.

This multiplication of the virus destroys the cells, which is why there are symptoms characteristic of problems with the respiratory system: such as a sore throat and cough. In the first mode of the spread, the virus spreads from the infected person to other people only after the onset of symptoms.

It is easiest to stop such an epidemic because the sick person no longer leaves home. Therefore, it mainly infects only their household members. It's also relatively easy to identify who was in contact with the person after the onset of symptoms and also put those people in isolation. We were fortunate that both SARS and MERS spread to other people only after the onset of the symptoms of the disease, so we were able to suppress the epidemics by isolating those infected and all their contacts after the onset of the symptoms. This is the most important reason why SARS and MERS didn't manage to kill an incredible number of people.

It's much more difficult to stop an epidemic if the virus spreads from the infected to the healthy during the period of the so-called incubation, which lasts from the entry of the virus into the body until the onset of the first symptoms. Then, the infected person can transmit the virus by contact to a significantly larger number of people in the days before they get any symptoms. That's the situation with this new COVID-19 pandemic. But even then, it's at least possible for every new patient to determine from whom he or she has previously contracted the infection. Namely, they had to meet somewhere, so it's possible to follow the whole chain of movement of the virus from person to person.

Due to this, intensive isolation measures of all those exposed to those already infected can significantly slow down the spread of the virus. This was done in Wuhan. That's why quarantines are justified and that's why they give good results.

A nightmare for any epidemiologist, however, is a third possibility for the virus to spread. In such a variant, people become infected and transmit the virus, but they themselves never show any symptoms. Scientists are currently looking for such possible spreads of contagion with this new COVID-19 pandemic. That's why such persons are occasionally mentioned in the media.

Namely, because of such infected people, cases are beginning to emerge among the population that can't be linked to any of the already infected people. When people are circulating in the population without symptoms but passing the virus on to others, it's very difficult for epidemiologists to do anything to prevent it from spreading among humans. Such an epidemic has the potential to spread over time, mainly due to such transmitters or carriers who show no symptoms.

5. What makes the new COVID-19 outbreak different from the previous six coronaviruses?

When something has happened six times in a system as complex as the Earth's ecosystem, then it's no surprise that it's happened for the seventh time. Another coronavirus is trying to make itself at home now in the human species. In this case, the primary reservoirs were probably bats again, because the genetic sequence of this new coronavirus coincides with that found in hibernating bats in about 96 percent. This time, instead of a civet, a smaller mammal or bird has served as coronavirus' transitional reservoir.

It's possible that it was a shellfish, because in one of them, a coronavirus that matched to the human form in as much as 99 percent of the sequence was found, although this isn't completely definite either. Sequence matching is not the only important factor when it comes to transfering to humans. What's also important is how many individuals in the species that serve as the transient reservoir are infected and how often the species comes into contact with humans. Sometimes these factors are more important, so they can bridge the gap of 2 percent or 3 percent of the genome difference, because bats are a protected species and can't be eaten.

Thus, in the Chinese province of Hubei, in the City of Wuhan, which has a population of eleven million, at around the end of 2019, the number of patients with unusual and very dangerous type of pneumonia began to increase around the fish market. It was soon discovered that this disease was spreading very quickly. Each infected person managed to successfully further infect as many as two to three people. Such a degree of infectivity is very high and leads to rapid growth of the epidemic. We had the misfortune of COVID-19 apparently managing to spread even during the incubation period, probably by touch.

This incubation period lasts about five days on average, and it becomes very tricky when it lasts longer. However, an incubation period of up to two weeks isn't that unusual, and incubation cases of up to four weeks seem to occur. During all this time, the infected person may spread the virus before the onset of any symptoms. If there are also infected people who don't develop symptoms, it will be extremely difficult to completely reverse this pandemic until we develop a vaccine for it. In conclusion, infectivity, ie, the ability to move from the infected to the uninfected, was significantly higher in COVID-19 than it was with SARS and MERS. But that's why we now know for sure that the COVID-19 mortality rate is still significantly lower than that of SARS and MERS.

6. What is the death rate among those infected with the COVID-19 epidemic, and why is there so much ambiguity about it in the media?

First, I will clarify that in this text, for ease of reference, I use the term "death rate" instead of the term "lethality" or "case-fatality rate" and to distinguish it from the term "mortality rate", which would refer to the term "mortality". In order to answer this rather complicated question, it must first be said that nowadays, the registered number of infected persons and the number of deaths can be monitored online.

When the registered number of infected people was divided by the number of deaths at the beginning of the pandemic, a figure of about 2 percent would be obtained. From this, one could apparently conclude that this coronavirus is new and so nobody is immune to it, which means that it will spread throughout the world over time and infect us all. If it kills 2 percent of all people, then it's not hard to calculate that out of 7.5 billion people, about 150 million will die from it. And it's difficult for anyone who is not a specialist in this field to understand how such an outcome can now be prevented at all, because a vaccine against this virus doesn't yet exist, nor do medicines.

The question of the death rate among those infected with COVID-19 indicated a general misunderstanding of the epidemiology profession in the public and in the media. From the very beginning of this pandemic, there were people who claimed that the new coronavirus was a disease milder than even the flu, but also those who believed it was significantly more dangerous. In recent days, this issue has finally caught the attention of all the world's media as the World Health Organisation reported "that about 3.4 percent of those infected with coronavirus have died." That sounded terrifying to the media and the public.

But then US President Donald Trump also made a public statement saying the number released by the WHO was "wrong." He said he'd talked to people who knew something about it and that his impression was that the number was certainly below 1 percent, if not significantly less. In my guest appearance on Sunday at 2 (Croatian TV show), I made my estimate of the death rate of 0.5 to 1 percent, with the possibility that it would be smaller.

However, both Trump and WHO are actually right, each in their own way, which shows best and how difficult it is for many people to keep track of what is really going on because of their ignorance of this profession.

In the beginnings of every viral epidemic, the virus still has to transfer over to humans, and that can be difficult. Therefore, they will choose those with a weakened immune system, who will have a harder time rejecting it. Because of this, the first patients are often people who are either older or already have some underlying illnesses that make them more vulnerable. They end up in a hospital, where at that point no one doubts the epidemic potential of their pneumonia.

They then become infected by other hospital patients, and by some healthcare professionals. The latter then spread the disease to other patients in the hospital - very sensitive people, the elderly, patients being treated for serious illnesses. For this reason, the proportion of deaths among all COVID-19 patients was initially very high. That's how it started out in Wuhan, and in exactly the same way in Italy - they died of infections in hospitals, and they were mostly very old and sick people.

In the meantime, the virus has started to spread among the general population, those outside of hospital situations. It has infected many people who are otherwise healthy and has as such better adapted. A large number of these people thought they had a cold, or the flu, and maybe even a more severe flu, which they were just letting run its course, resting at home. Considering that it was flu season in Wuhan at the time of the outbreak, and it was reported that something strange was happening in hospitals and that people were dying on a larger scale, it is now understood that many with the coronavirus stayed home and treated themselves.

Few people wanted to go to the hospital to have tests for the flu because of coronavirus, when a seemingly very deadly epidemic was brewing there. Only the few who have struggled with fevers and symptoms for more than eight or nine days sought help from Wuhan hospitals.

In China, there is typically no primary health care and family medicine as we know it, but there are huge hospitals in their huge cities where patients report directly. That's why the death rate among patients at Wuhan hospitals at the beginning of the epidemic was so frighteningly high.

7. Is the infection of the most vulnerable in Wuhan hospitals early on in the epidemic the sole reason for the high initial death rate of COVID-19?

It isn't. The epidemic seemed even more dangerous at first, as it created a great deal of pressure on hospital intensive care units, which were unprepared for this infection. As a result, all severely ill patients could not receive intensive care. This further increased the mortality rate at the beginning of the epidemic. That's why the Chinese have started building new hospitals - to have sufficient capacities to be able to provide intensive care and to move all those infected with COVID-19 away from other seriously ill people who are sick because of other diseases, who are at the highest risk of dying if they do become infected.

Based on this, it should be understood that the total number of those infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan was much higher than what was confirmed by health statistics. Specifically, only those with coronaviruses who were eventually admitted to the hospital were confirmed to be infected and were tested for the new virus there. They are by no means representative of all those infected with the new coronavirus in Wuhan.

Their mortality rates cannot, therefore, be mapped even in terms of the population of the total number of those infected with coronavirus in Wuhan, let alone the entire population of Wuhan - ie, all infected and uninfected people. Therefore, it's completely wrong to look at the number of confirmed infected and the number of deaths on the Internet and divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed infected people and draw any conclusions from that.

8. Why does the number of infected and deceased people on the Internet, which is constantly being updated, give a wrong impression about the death rate of COVID-19?

If the deaths are divided by the confirmed number of infected people, then both the numerator and the denominator are completely wrong when it comes to calculating the actual death rate. Even deaths in the numerator are wrong because if we monitor the confirmed infected and those who have died in real time, that is, day by day, it can be understood that a great many infected people haven't even had a chance to either recover or die.

People in intensive care will die for days, weeks, maybe months, which is why the death toll in numbers will increase over time. In doing that, some future number of registered deaths, as the numerator, will increasingly correspond to the current number of registered infected persons, as the denominator. The mortality rate of "deaths through confirmed infection" will then no longer be 2 percent or 3 percent, but may increase over time, perhaps to 6 percent or 7 percent.

Therefore, to say that "3 percent or  4 percent of those confirmed to have been infected so far have died" isn't really wrong in itself, which is what the World Health Organisation did. But what it missed is explaining that this mortality rate among confirmed infected people is quite unrepresentative of the mortality rate among those infected, which is much lower. It wouldn't surprise me, as an epidemiologist, if it is up to ten times smaller, maybe more. This could ultimately make COVID-19 a less deadly and dangerous disease even than the common flu.

9. Can you be sure that the total number of infected people is much higher than the number of registered infected people, is there any evidence for this?

Given that the virus is new and unknown, this is a key question. Unfortunately, the possibility that this virus is quite different from known ones must also be allowed. It may be that the rate of deaths among confirmed infected people is only 3 to 5 times lower than the death rate among the number of all infected people, and not ten or thirty times lower. The only sure thing is that the number of confirmed infected people certainly didn't quite equal the number of infected in Wuhan. The current global totals for COVID-19 are still largely determined by what happened in Wuhan at the beginning of the epidemic, since about two-thirds of cases worldwide still originate in Wuhan to this day.

That's why I've already explained on Sunday at 2 that the mortality rate among confirmed infected people is not so important to us because it's a subset of the most severe patients. You should know the mortality rate among the total infected people. However, no one can know that at this time, because at least 100,000 Wuhan residents would need to be tested for this and then the presence of antibodies against coronaviruses should be detected.

Accordingly, we'd also know the proportion of people who got over it without ever even seeing a doctor. So far, no one has conducted these studies because the health system was preoccupied with the diagnosis of coronavirus in hospitals and even struggled with it. It's now known that during some days of the outbreak, while it was spreading, there were not enough tests for all those who had symptoms.

However, the first additional evidence is beginning to emerge. The first is the report of an international panel of experts who visited China. They concluded that when looking at just about all cases across China that were reported after February the 1st, when the identification of all those infected was significantly improved, and hospitals were better prepared for the epidemic, the mortality rate of all cases that came under health surveillance and were tested dropped to 0.7 percent.

For all those skeptical of China's data, we've also received reports from South Korea. In that country, the authorities have really done their best to aggressively test people, seek out all those infected and isolate them and treat them. In their analyses to date, the death rate of all infected people has been slightly above 0.6 percent. Both of these figures could increase slightly, but not really significantly, if they also included those who could die over time, and are currently counted as infected, but at such a low rate of death, there won't be as many. It's more likely that many infected people remain undiagnosed and the rate is actually even lower.

Another interesting recent new source is the study of more than 1000 COVID-19 patients followed up right up until the end of the infection, collected from over 500 Chinese hospitals, published in a top scientific journal. It showed their mortality rate of 1.4 perent. However, it was not all those infected again, but those who requested hospital treatment, and therefore it should still be at least two to three times less among all those infected.

Thus, it appears that data from very different and increasingly reliable sources are starting to converge to the values ​​I predicted on Sunday at 2 a week ago, i.e. 0.5 percent to 1 percent. Because of all of the above, US President Donald Trump is most likely right to say that number is certainly less than 1 percent, and he believes it could be well below 1 percent. Everything we know about epidemiology and previous pandemics gives us hope that this could be the case.

10. Can anyone in a country be infected with a coronavirus? If so, would the death rate of 0.5 percent or 1 percent be applicable to the whole population then?

The virus will not succeed in infecting just about everyone in Croatia for a variety of reasons. The front line of defense is currently anti-epidemic measures. All those who may be infected are being tested, and then COVID-19 patients and all their contacts are isolated.

These measures significantly slow down and prevent the spread of the virus in Croatia and buy us some time. It's of utmost importance that the number of patients doesn't increase too quickly, in order to enable the staff of our health care system to provide quality care to all patients, and if necessary - intensive care. In the absence of these measures, there would be an exponential increase in the number of infected people, which would soon become intolerable for the health system. We're also protected by our geographical dispersion, ie, there are many people living in smaller towns and settlements. A large number of them will probably never be entered by an infected person.

Furthermore, as people become infected and get over it, they should become immune to the virus. As a result, there will be fewer and fewer people the virus can transfer to. At some point, the number of new people that infected people can spread coronavirus to will decrease to an average of less than one. This will limit and stop the epidemic itself. That's the reason we vaccinate - to disable the virus, even if it infects some unvaccinated people, it has less options for further spread. Specifically, some people will already be immune to the virus and their bodies will reject it if the virus tries to get into them. Many processes in nature are self-limiting in a similar way - forest fires and epidemics.

Furthermore, in the Sunday at 2 broadcast, I also explained why the finally determined death rate among all those infected should not be directly mapped to the entire population of a country, in order to estimate the possible death toll. The first reason is that the virus mainly affects the elderly. That's why this established rate of death among all those infected can be projected only on the elderly, but not on young people and children. Young people and children rarely get sick and their death rates are much, much lower. This further contributes to the diminishing potential of the virus to cause a very high number of COVID-19 casualties.

11. Should we then fear the COVID-19 pandemic, and if so, how much?

The situation should be taken seriously and people should be cautious, but there's no reason to be overly afraid, there's especially no reason to panic. I understand that many people are afraid of this pandemic because they probably think we're in a completely unfamiliar situation, so anything could happen. But it's unlikely that much could happen for which science could not find explanations and answers, and the epidemiological services responded in a timely manner. Although it's not good for a serious scientist to try to predict anything about the spread of a completely new and unknown virus to the entire human population in the world and to predict each individual event, we have in recent weeks collected enough information about the new COVID-19 virus for at least some predictions.

If the new coronavirus completely spreads across Croatia over time and manages to circumvent the many prevention measures currently in place, its casualties should be at least roughly comparable to the deaths from flu or road accidents in the same period. This means that some healthy caution is advisable. This caution is reasonable as long as it is on the same level as the fear you may feel when sitting in a car and preparing for a longer trip, or when you hear on the news that a more severe form of influenza has arrived in Croatia.

But many wonder why coronavirus is written so much about and why it attracts such a level of attention. This is because flu has been a well-known disease for decades, it comes back every year and we have experience with its manifestation in tens of millions of patients worldwide, we know how to develop vaccines against it in advance, and we've started to get the first somewhat effective drugs on the market. Unlike the flu, the new coronavirus is unknown to us and we're most cautious about not being unpleasantly surprised. At the same time, the most vulnerable among us, who are already seriously ill or very old, aren't vaccinated, as is the case with the flu, so this new disease can kill more easily.

12. Is it now quite clear that COVID-19 is a significantly more dangerous virus than the flu?

This question has constantly been being raised since the beginning because many are looking at various figures without a deeper understanding of their background and are comparing the incomparable.

First of all, the general public underestimates how dangerous and serious the flu actually is, especially for the most vulnerable, the elderly and the already ill. In the world, influenza causes between 250,000 and 650,000 deaths annually, depending on the strain of the circulating virus. Different strains can cause milder or more severe symptoms, and the virus mutates year after year. However, we try to prepare those most vulnerable before the flu season begins.

Therefore, the number of deaths from influenza is reduced by preventive health intervention, ie, vaccination, and this can't be done with the spread of COVID-19. This is the first reason why the flu seems less dangerous, but it may be no less dangerous, it's just that we protect the most vulnerable. In addition, flu vaccinations make it more difficult for it to spread among the population because there are fewer options for it to transfer to the uninfected. Due to the slower spread, new cases are slower to emerge and the health care system has time to deal with them properly, especially if they require intensive care.

Another reason is that the number of deaths directly from the flu is several times lower than the number of deaths indirectly from the flu. Influenza is often not cited as a direct cause in statistics on the causes of death, if it has merely led to the exacerbation of some of the long-present chronic, underlying disease. These chronic diseases are then cited as the primary cause of death, and not influenza. Therefore, the actual role of influenza in total annual mortality is often significantly underestimated. It could also be several times higher if the cause of death were reclassified at the end of each year, given the increase in deaths from chronic diseases during the flu season.

The third reason is that we have a much better idea of ​​the total number of people truly infected with the flu than we do with coronavirus. This is because influenza is a disease that is typically managed around the world within primary care, after which patients are referred to home care and only the most serious cases end up in hospital.

Due to the obligation to report to the central registry, as well as for sick leave, the total number of people infected with influenza in the population, ie, the denominator for death rates, is much better known to us than the coronavirus. COVID-19 has so far been diagnosed and treated exclusively in hospitals for severe cases. Their estimates of death rates include patients suffering from ''hospital outbreaks'', which have spread to the elderly, the sick and the immunocompromised.

From all of this, it should be concluded that the rates of death from influenza, as a very dangerous viral disease, have been mathematically reduced compared to the current reports of death rates for coronaviruses for the three reasons I mentioned. The first is to vaccinate those most vulnerable to the flu before the flu arrives. Another reason is that health statistics don't record the majority of flu deaths as deaths from influenza, but because of the exacerbation of pre-existing underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, malignant tumors and other things.

The third is that the denominator we use to calculate the death rates from influenza is much closer to the total population actually infected, while the denominator for coronaviruses is not yet known with sufficient certainty. Epidemiologists, from experience with other respiratory viruses, know that all events in hospitals that affect among the most vulnerable, should by no means be mapped and placed alongside the healthy. However, the general public who is not in the profession cannot have a good sense of this huge difference. That's why all death rates from the number of people infected with the flu are not currently comparable to all the death rates of coronaviruses currently being managed.

While the general public, on the one hand, underestimates the risk of influenza for three reasons, it is also easy to overestimate the risk of the new coronavirus due to its intense media focus. If influenza in Croatia was monitored in this way each year to report on each infected person and their influenza testing, almost every day at least one person in Croatia would die directly from the flu during the winter months, and three or four more would die indirectly. Then the public would realise how dangerous the flu really is and how reasonable it is to be vaccinated against it.

Therefore, it still doesn't seem possible to me, at least at this stage of the pandemic, to decisively state which of the two diseases is inherently more dangerous to humans or which will cause more deaths this year. Flu will, at least apparently, cause fewer deaths because the most vulnerable go for vaccinations, and many of the deaths it causes are not attributed to it in health statistics. COVID-19, in turn, will cause fewer deaths than it could due to epidemiological surveillance, the prevention of its spread and possible severe quarantine, and it may also have seasonal characteristics and simply disappear with the arrival of late spring.

13. Are such strict quarantines justified?

When we have no other means of defending ourselves against the new virus, all we can really do is retreat indoors and prevent the virus from travelling from infected to healthy individuals. People generally don't have an intuitive sense of exponential growth.

If each newly infected person infects just one more person each day, the number of newly infected people will increase from 2 to 16 during the early phase, which doesn't seem like a big increase. A little later, it will jump to 1024 infected people from 128 over the next three days, and that doesn't sound so terrible either. But there will also come four days in which the number of newly infected people will increase from 100,000 to 800,000.

When China saw that the COVID-19 epidemic was out of control and entered that explosive phase, it immediately cut off Wuhan and then fifteen other cities from the rest of the country. In addition, it ordered that the population within these cut-off areas stay in their apartments and not leave. It was an unprecedented measure in human history - tens of millions of people were quarantined for weeks. Everything stopped.

However, this measure produced excellent results and China could stop the death toll of less than 5,000, although the epidemic found it unprepared and the virus spread to just about every province. A recent report from a World Health Organisation commission made up of 25 international experts visiting China concluded the following:

"The very bold Chinese approach to preventing the rapid spread of this new respiratory virus has changed the course of a then rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. Faced with an unknown virus, China has implemented probably the most ambitious, agile and aggressive effort to combat infectious diseases - ever. This uncompromising and rigorous non-pharmaceutical measure of ordinary quarantine in curbing the transmission of COVID-19 virus in multiple contexts is now providing us with key lessons in planning a global response.''

14. What happened on the Diamond Princess ship, which is also isolated? It appears to have a death rate of more than 1 percent for those infected. Isn't that very informative for scientists?

I can only say that this may be because, on these large ships, people are mostly older, because one should look at the age and gender structure of passengers, which, I believe, would explain at least something more. Also, it is quite possible that a mutated version of the virus, which is somewhat more dangerous, also enters into such a pocket, and such isolated groups emerge in which the disease actually ran a more severe course. This is not impossible, but it also isn't likely that it can be mapped to the entire population of a country.

The virus, now spreading through the human species, continues to mutate in order to adapt to us as quickly as possible. According to previous epidemiological experiences, many of these mutations should make it less dangerous for our health, as they will be better adapted to us in this way. However, some random mutations could make it more dangerous, and we need to be on our guard until we get better acquainted with it and the pandemic is over. It's unlikely that the new coronavirus will mutate to become significantly more dangerous than it is now, but we'll only be able to assert that for sure when the pandemic is over.

15. What's happening in Italy and Iran? Does COVID-19 behave differently there than it does in other countries? Could the development of a mutated, more dangerous variant of the virus be the reason?

These are very difficult questions to answer until we get more quality data from both countries. In principle, it's possible that the first entry of the virus into a new country may be in the body of an infected person, in which the virus has mutated into some more severe form. If all further cases come from this mutant and a more dangerous virus, then in these countries, the situation may initially seem more difficult than elsewhere, until other carriers emerge. In population genetics this development is known as the so-called "founder effect" - the effect of the founder. However, both of these countries may also have different explanations.

The reason why the rate of deaths among infected people in Italy appears to be very high is because even there, the disease spread in small-town hospitals which were completely unprepared for the epidemic, and among the elderly who are at much greater risk of dying if they become infected.

The death rates in hospital outbreaks among older, sick, and possibly immunocompromised people will be much higher than those in the community, among healthy and younger people. Among the top 100 deaths in Italy, almost all people were over 60 years of age and had underlying illnesses. That's why the mortality rate seems so high there, but it just isn't representative of the entire population. Seasonal flu would probably have done similar damage if many had not been vaccinated against it. But it's also possible that there are many more cases in the population than previously thought because the virus has been spreading for a long time. In Iran, however, the situation is unclear so far. The most likely explanation, too, is that there are already significantly more cases of infection than was imagined among the population.

16. Is it possible that coronavirus may surprise us and ultimately prove significantly more dangerous than seasonal influenza and kill more than one million people in the world, or even several million?

If COVID-19 proves to be significantly more dangerous than seasonal influenza, then one million deaths worldwide could indeed be expected, perhaps significantly more. Unfortunately, such a scenario is still possible in principle with a virus that is new and unknown to us, for a variety of reasons. Because of this, all experts in the field, including myself, are constantly urging people to take caution, but without the unnecessary panic.

In which scenarios could the situation become much more difficult? Firstly, most epidemiologists, based on their experience with previous epidemics and pandemics, expect the COVID-19 mortality rate to fall well below 1 percent when the death toll begins to be shared with a better estimate of all infected people. However, the virus is new, so it's possible in principle for this specific virus that the number of infected individuals not registered may not be as large as epidemiologists would expect. This would come as a surprise to science and would indicate a different nature of this virus.

The new coronavirus causing COVID-19 is somewhat similar to that caused by SARS. The SARS pathogen, however, had an extremely high death rate among all those infected. If the total population infected is found to be higher than the registered infected population by only two or three times, and not by at least ten times, then the death rate of those infected with COVID-19 could be significantly higher than the flu.

Combined with the lack of a vaccination, because we don't have vaccines for it, it would lead to a significantly higher number of deaths than the flu. However, such an event will be prevented by measures of isolation of the patients and their contacts, as well as by quarantines, which aren't applied to the flu. We also hope that the passage of winter and the arrival new seasons will become our allies, which will slow down or completely hinder the further spread of the virus.

Furthermore, the virus could spread to infected people in some of its more dangerous forms, as well as in milder forms. Previous experiences with epidemics have shown that mutation into milder forms is more likely, but mutation into more dangerous forms, or those that are more easily spread, isn't impossible either. In some countries, such a variant would increase the death rate locally compared to other countries or accelerate infection.

This would put their health systems in a really difficult situation as intensive care units would soon become overloaded. With poorer care available, the death rate of all those infected would increase further, with the collapse of part of the health system. It's also a very tricky scenario in which many healthcare professionals would become infected over time in providing care to patients, which would make the situation worse.

Therefore, currently, perhaps the most important citizens of Croatia are all those healthcare professionals who work in hospitals for infectious diseases, especially in their intensive care units. They should be protected from work overload but also from coronavirus infection by their patients. With the increasing number of infected people, the demand for quality intensive care, respirators and ECMO devices for extracorporeal oxygen enrichment and the doctors and nurses in these wards will become the "bottleneck" of the health care system, which should be amplified and further strengthened before they come under increased pressure.

The worst-case scenario imaginable to epidemiologists right now is the entry of some more dangerous, mutated version of coronavirus into one of the very poor countries in the world with a poor health system. Such countries cannot implement satisfactory quality epidemiological surveillance measures. Then, a more dangerous version of the virus would infect a large percentage of the country's population relatively quickly. Panic would ensue, probably also a black market for the transport of migrants to other countries. Then COVID-19 would start to expand uncontrollably and in a whole new way.

In the event of any of these unfavourable developments, which are all unfortunately possible, though not likely, we'd need a completely new protection strategy. Each country will have its own approach. When the death toll in each of the affected countries begins to rise so much as to cause fear among the population, people will become more willing to take much stricter measures. In such a case, more and more countries will resort to a "Chinese" solution that has proven effective in Wuhan - declaring large, very strict quarantines. It's essential to buy time in such quarantines so that health systems don't become overburdened and to anticipate the end of winter and the possible seasonality of this virus, which could then begin to spread in a weakened manner or disappear altogether, at least until next winter.

17. With these reasons for caution and adverse scenarios, is there any reason for possible optimism?

There are at least several reasons for optimism. First of all, epidemiological surveillance and "front lines of defense" are currently in place throughout the European Union. If it works well in most countries, it's possible that their outbreaks will be controlled and not go into a phase of exponential growth in the number of cases. In the most favourable scenario, with this retention, this coronavirus would show seasonality and slowly disappear from circulation with changes in nature characteristic of late spring and summer. However, this is the most favourable scenario, in which the final death toll would be much lower than that already caused by the flu this year.

However, if the front line of defense and epidemiological surveillance is broken through by the virus, then governments will resort to strict measures to ban assemblies and organise quarantines, as the Chinese did. Several models done in recent weeks indicate that strict quarantine should completely suppress the spread of this coronavirus within three months. This is exactly what we've already seen in China. That's why it seems to me that one great positive lesson of this pandemic is that humanity today would be able to survive even more dangerous infectious diseases than COVID-19 with strict quarantine, in which people would remain until scientists developed vaccines. This is really a new situation that has shown us this.

Finally, the tireless work of numerous scientists currently testing over a hundred drugs against this virus, as well as at least eleven experimental vaccines, should be noted. It is also impossible to get recommendations on the use of medicines in the foreseeable future, and vaccines should become available over time. In this unusual situation, these are all unknowns that could at some point become important and make a significant difference.

18. With the effectiveness of quarantine in China, can we draw any lessons from this pandemic?

We should always strive to find something good in all the bad things that are currently happening to us. I hope from this that many people will finally realise how dangerous flu is and start to get vaccinated against it. Each year, the flu kills between 250,000 and 650,000 people worldwide.

In China, which is one-sixth of the world's population, the death toll from COVID-19 could be stopped below 5000 by the Wuhan quarantine. If all other countries could implement anti-epidemic measures like China, then the death toll from COVID -19 could be at most six times higher, ie, up to 30,000. That would be ten times fewer deaths than the total number of deaths caused annually by seasonal influenza. Unfortunately, many countries will not be able to follow China's example closely and will have uncontrolled outbreaks if the warmer season doesn't stop the spread of the virus.

Furthermore, if the virus continues to spread throughout 2020, it will demonstrate in a very cruel way how well the public health systems of individual countries function. It will be possible to produce performance charts for each country in controlling this new infectious disease, given the population size and age structure. These will be very important lessons to learn in preparation for a future pandemic, which could be even more dangerous.

Additionally, the virus generally spreads by contact. This means that it's good to be reminded that hands should be regularly and properly washed during epidemics, you should avoid touching surfaces that many people touch (knobs, handrails, ATMs), avoid shaking hands, keep at least two steps away from people who have symptoms of respiratory infections, and it's also advisable to regularly ventilate your living quarters. It's also helpful to work to strengthen your personal immunity with sufficient sleep, exercise and good nutrition.

19. Are there any real surprises for science related to this pandemic, at least for now?

Very few [surprises], I'd say. I explained why it's no surprise that after the previous six coronaviruses, the seventh has now manifested in a human. Nor is its spread rate a surprise, as there are both significantly more infectious and much less infectious respiratory viruses. It would be somewhat surprising for epidemiologists if the number of the total infected people in the population wasn't significantly higher than the number of registered infected people, which would raise the death rate significantly above that of the flu. We continue to await the information of well-conducted studies on this.

Perhaps the biggest surprises are related to the clinical course of COVID-19 rather than the epidemiology itself. For now, clinicians in China have reported that registered infected people report to the hospital rather late, on average after as many as 9-12 days of home care. This may be a reflection of their fear of being admitted to the hospital during an epidemic, but it may also be an interesting feature of infections with slow development over other respiratory infections. Furthermore, fever doesn't appear to accompany other symptoms of the disease in the first few days, making it difficult to locate cases by controlling people's temperatures.

The media has also reported on the possible return of the virus after suffering from the infection in some cases. For now, it's hard to know how common these cases are, and how many exceptions there are. Many viral respiratory infections always need to be "rested", that is, to allow the body to recover for a day or two after the infection has ended, as it is unknown whether or not these infections can return if the immune system has not completely removed the virus from the body. But with all new and unknown viruses such surprises are possible, so one should be careful until the pandemic is over.

20. What are your closing messages?

In all the answers I have offered in this article, I've endeavored to convey an insight into the most likely scientific explanations for the abundant information that is published about COVID-19 in the domestic and international media. Over time, some of the likely scientific explanations may need to be modified in the light of new information. One shouldn't forget that this is a new virus, so surprises and deviations from the expected scenarios are in principle possible. That's why I emphasise that caution is needed, but not panic. I will monitor the further development of the pandemic.

Obviously, we need to prepare for a serious flu-like illness against which no one will be able to be vaccinated. Therefore, elderly people and those with underlying illnesses should be extremely careful because the infection is very dangerous to them. Having gained our first knowledge of COVID-19, we now need to concentrate on preventing the spread of the virus in Croatia and buying our time in regard to the weather until the arrival of warmer days, when we might be lucky enough to slowly stop the virus from circulating due to seasonality. Unfortunately, we can't know that right now. From everything written, it should be understood that all measures of active searching and the isolation of patients and their contacts are justified.

These also include bans on gathering together larger groups of people, as well as possible quarantine if the epidemic starts to elude control. Particularly, older people should be looked after because the probability of a bad outcome increases significantly with age. In addition, those with heart disease, diabetes, or undergoing cancer treatment should take special care.''

This text was written by Igor Rudan and translated by Lauren Simmonds

For rolling information and updates in English on coronavirus in Croatia, as well as other lengthy articles written by Croatian epidemiologist Igor Rudan, follow our dedicated section.

As Adriano Milovan/Novac writes on the 9th of March, 2020, the Italian economy is likely to enter into a recession according to a new rating by the rating agency Moody's. This is more than likely to hit Croatia negatively and affect the previously predicted Croatian GDP growth.

In their new report on the state of the world economy, Moody's experts warn that the current coronavirus epidemic will hit the entire global economy, at least in the first half of this year. When it comes to Italy, their new forecasts suggest that Italy's GDP could fall by 0.5 percent this year when compared to last year, and that's even when taking a more optimistic scenario into consideration, assuming the situation with coronavirus gets no worse.

However, should the coronavirus situation in Italy continue to escalate further, Italy's economy could contract by 0.7 percent this year, as new Moody's forecasts show, warning that the areas hardest hit by coronavirus in the country are in the most developed regions in northern Italy, where more than forty percent of Italy's entire economic activity takes place.

"The risks of a global recession have increased," said the Moody's analysts, who warned of the rapid spread of coronavirus worldwide.

Moody's analysts haven't directly addressed Croatia in the report. However, given the strong economic ties between Italy and Croatia, it is already clear that Croatia will also feel the effects of the Italian recession. Italy is one of the most important foreign trade partners to Croatia, and a huge number of tourists come from Italy.

For example, according to the latest available national statistics data, covering the first eleven months of last year, Croatian companies exported goods worth 14.6 billion kuna to Italy, accounting for almost 14 percent of total Croatian exports.

At the same time, imports from Italy amounted to around 23.9 billion kuna, meaning that problems for Italy naturally mean problems for Croatia and the previously predicted Croatian GDP growth. Not surprisingly, many economists fear that the threat of this new recession for Italy could quite easily spill over into the eastern Adriatic coast, especially if the situation with coronavirus doesn't calm down.

''Croatia and Italy have very developed trade links, entire sectors in Croatia depend on orders from Italy, and Croatia imports a lot from Italy. The slowdown in economic activity in our environment, and especially in Italy, has also led to a slowdown in economic activity in Croatia, and perhaps even a recession. In any case, it's already clear that the economic growth rates announced in this year will not materialise in our country,'' warned Damir Novotny, a respected economic analyst.

''What is already certain is that the planned growth rate of our economy - and we expected Croatian GDP growth of 2.5 percent this year - will not materialise. It's also clear that the preseason is also out of thr question. However, in the Croatian case the key is the peak of the tourist season, so if the situation with coronavirus soon calms down, the main season may not be affected. In any case, what will happen with our economy in April and May is crucial, since as early as May, it will be possible to assess what sort of main tourist season we can expect,'' says Zrinka Zivkovic Matijevic, a macroeconomist at Raiffeisen.

She added that it was too early to predict what would happen in the Croatian, European and world economy by the end of the year. Therefore, she and her team constantly monitor developments and develop various scenarios.

In Croatia and when it comes to Croatian GDP growth or the lack of it, the developments of the situation will depend largely on what happens in nearby Italy, but also here on home terrain, since we have already "imported" coronavirus from Italy, with which, however, the Croatian authorities have so far been far more successful in fighting than their Italian counterparts.

Nonetheless, the coronavirus epidemic is already taking a toll in certain sectors of the Croatian economy and will continue to have negative effects on Croatian GDP growth, with the sectors most threatened being the wood industry, transport and trade, and of course, Croatia's strongest economic branch - tourism.

Clearly, the extent to which these sectors, and the Croatian economy as a whole, will suffer is yet to be seen given that the coronavirus epidemic is still ongoing and difficult to predict. This may depend on the final assessment of whether we will ''import'' a recession from Italy or, in a milder case, economic stagnation.

While macroeconomists warn that the situation is not yet critical, although it remains very serious, Croatian companies are already adding up the damage they have suffered so far as a result of the coronavirus epidemic.

''We're closely monitoring the developments in Italy. We hope it will leave at least some [free] corridor, at least for some products,'' says Petar Simic, owner and director of Primaco, a freight forwarding company.

He adds that Primaco has already introduced maximum driver protection measures, such as the obligation to wear masks and gloves, frequent disinfection, and stopping only in certain places along the road. They have introduced similar measures for those who transport goods to Italy and to other countries, as well as for those in Croatia.

''Still, quarantine for sixteen million people in the Italian north is a new challenge and it is yet to be seen how traffic with Italy will continue,'' Simic says.

For more on Croatian GDP growth and the negative effects the current coronavirus epidemic is set to have on it, follow our dedicated business page.

For the latest March 20 update click here.

March 9, 2020 - There are 13 confirmed cases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Croatia, 3 of whom are in serious condition. More than 3,995 people are dead from the virus, which originated in Wuhan City, China; and over 113,975 cases have been confirmed globally. There are 33,200 cases outside of mainland China and 9,172 in Italy. 

*Follow this page for updates on the coronavirus in Croatia from Total Croatia News. Contact numbers for epidemiologists, travel advisories and measures for preventing the spread of the coronavirus can be found here.

Thirteen Coronavirus Cases in Croatia

As of March 9, 2020; thirteen Coronavirus (COVID-19) patients have been reported in Croatia: 5 in Rijeka, 3 in Zagreb, 4 in Varaždin and 1 in Pula.

• The first patient is from Zagreb who became infected during his stay in Italy (Milan, Lombardy province). The two other patients from Zagreb are close contacts of the first patient. 
• A patient from Rijeka became infected during a stay in Italy (Parma). The four other patients from Rijeka are close contacts of the third patient. 
• The first patient from Varaždin stayed in Milan with three friends. The second confirmed case from Varaždin is a truck driver who had been in Italy and was in preventative self-isolation. The third and fourth Varaždin cases are close contacts of the driver.
• In Pula, the first coronavirus infection was confirmed this evening. He is a Croatian citizen who works in Italy and is currently hospitalized. 

Live World Coronavirus Updates

• Live world updates from CNN here.
• Live world updates from The Guardian here.
• Live world updates from Al Jazeera here.

Live Health Organization Coronavirus Updates

• Live updated international map tracking spread of coronavirus from Johns Hopkins CSSE here.
• Live updates from the World Health Organization (WHO) here.
• Live updates from the Croatian Institute of Public Health (daily updates at 15:00 CET in Croatian) here.

UPDATED: March 9, 2020 22:00 CET (Central European Time)

Croatia National Coronavirus Update 

In their daily press conference, which began today at 16:00 CET, the Croatia National Civil Protection Headquarters has ordered all foreign nationals entering Croatia from countries with focal coronavirus outbreaks to be under compulsory quarantine for 14 days. They also recommended postponing rallies attended by more than 1,000 people.

• President of the Civil Protection Staff Davor Bozinovic said on Monday that foreign nationals entering Croatia from infection hotspots (China, Italy, South Korea) will be subject to a mandatory 14-day quarantine and Croatian citizens will receive an order for a 14-day self-isolation.
• They also suggest that citizens delay travel to countries affected by coronavirus.
• Bozinovic stressed that all gatherings attended by more than 1000 people should be postponed, and the organizers of gatherings, which would eventually take place, are obliged to ensure the highest hygiene standards, as well as maintain areas with disinfectants. 
• All gathering participants should be given clear instructions to refrain from the usual non-verbal communication that involves avoiding shaking hands and close social contact.
• Bozinovic said that people with respiratory illnesses and fever should not attend such events, and before the event starts the organizer will need to obtain approval from the county civil protection headquarters and the competent public health institute.

"In Croatia, the epidemiological situation is still calm, we have only 12 (13 as of this evening) infected. That is why we have decided on an additional package of preventive measures. We have decided to take measures to preserve public health in Croatia," Croatian Health Minister Vili Beros reported.

Before Measures, 600 Italians Had Entered Croatia Within 24 Hours

"Transmission in some Italian cities is obviously not controllable and that's why they those areas are closed, and people have to stay at home. 600 Italians have entered Croatia in the last 24 hours. We have introduced new measures. Up until now they have been allowed to move freely. Now we have been compelled to introduce a quarantine measure," Krunoslav Capak, Croatian Health Director, reported. He did not specify how many Italian citizens had entered Croatia from coronavirus hotspots in Italy.

"If they choose not to quarantine, they will have to return to their country," he added.

"These are the same areas that the Italian government has closed, which is a perfectly reasonable measure," added minister Bozinovic.

"I'm sure we will all agree upon when these measures should be discontinued. It's good news that the (number of new) infections has decreased in the places (in other countries) where they originated. We believe that this will happen in Italy as well. But today it’s not possible to say when that will happen," Bozinovic concluded.

Markotic: Patients Stable, Three with Serious Symptoms

Alemka Markotic, Director of University Hospital for Infectious Diseases Dr. Fran Mihaljevic, said there were no new changes regarding patients.

"They (three) have showed symptoms for several days, fever, cough, malaise, and one required oxygen for a short period of time; which is to be expected for this illness," she added.

Croatia and Regional Daily Updates

22:00 - All of Italy is under quarantine because of the coronaviruse. Italian citizens will be allowed to go to work, see a doctor, and move around for emergencies. All sports events are have been cancelled and classes are postponed until April 3.

18:40 - In Italy, 97 people died in the last 24 hours. There were 1797 new infections reported. More.

18:35 - A second case of infection has been confirmed in Serbia.

18:20 - The 13th case of coronavirus infection was confirmed in Croatia, in Pula. More.

17:30 - A fourth case of coronavirus has been confirmed in Bosnia. More.

15:57 - More ski resorts in southern Tyrol, Austria will close their trails before the end of the season due to the coronavirus crisis, Slovenian news agency STA announced on Monday, according to Austrian agency APA.

15:26 - HZZO (Croatian National Health System) explained in a statement that people in self-isolation should seek wage compensation. More.

15:22 - The Croatian Road Carriers Association asks the government to allocate part of their taxes and contributions for their employees to overcome the difficulties caused by the situation in Italy, as well as to help defer the repayment of the leasing installment and loans for the vehicles they have purchased. More.

15:20 - Two families in Cres are in isolation because they provided accommodations for foreigners with the coronavirus. More.

14:48 - The number of those infected in Slovenia has climbed to 23. "By 14:00 CET, 23 cases of coronavirus infection were confirmed in Slovenia and 1227 tests have been performed," the Slovenian government announced on Twitter. Fifteen patients are hospitalized in Ljubljana, and it is not known where at this time.

14:31 - British Airways and easyJet cancel flights to northern Italy. Flights to and from Milan Malpensa, Milan Linate, Bergamot and Venice have been cancelled.

14:30 - The BBC reports that riots have erupted in 27 Italian prisons. More.

13:57 - Two major events in Croatia cancelled due to the coronavirus. This is the Digital Takeover 2020 Summit as well as Danima komunikacija (Communication Days). More.

13:22 - After a rebellion broke out in Modena last night, during which six people died, a riot of prisoners in several Italian prisons ensued. At the moment, law enforcement is trying to suppress a rebellion in the Follia prison where some prisoners have managed to escape but were stopped. Ten inmates who escaped from prison were arrested by police. Prisoners also ignited a fire outside the prison entrance. The prison is still under police siege.

At least seven inmates have fled and are being sought. More.

12:55 - Briton Greg Foster, who lives in Matera, southern Italy, told the BBC that the situation there was tense and discouraging. "The mayor has closed all major facilities, such as wedding halls and concert halls, and many offices are also closing doors," he said, adding that "there is a lot of tension."

12:43 - No coronavirus infections in Osijek-Baranja County, and a patient who came from Italy was admitted to the KBC in Osijek last night, but his findings were negative, a press conference by the County Civil Protection Headquarters reported on Monday. Disinfection of border crossings are also taking place within the county.

12:40 - The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina has issued instructions that all mass gatherings should be canceled in order to prevent the possibility of the spread of coronaviruses. case of coronavirus infection in BiH recorded in the territory of that entity, that is, Banja Luka. More.

11:05 - Serbia has made the decision to cancel all school trips. The ban applies to high school and university trips and student and student exchanges and applies to all schools and universities. More.

10:10 - Three people infected with the coronavirus in Croatia are worse off than others, but their lives are not in danger.

These are two patients from Rijeka and one from Varaždin, but they are not life-threatening. He explained that there is evidence of changes in the lungs of three patients. More.

9:48 - All those who violate the prohibition of movement in Italy without having a valid justification are threatened with up to three months in jail with a fine of up to 206 EUR. But it looks like those penalties will be further tightened, reports Corriere della Serra.

UPDATED: March 9, 2020 22:00 CET (Central European Time)

For the latest March 20 update click here.

*Follow this page for updates on the coronavirus in Croatia from Total Croatia News. Contact numbers for epidemiologists, travel advisories and measures for preventing the spread of the coronavirus can be found here.

Article update - TCN is putting out a daily update on the coronavirus situation in Croatia, with an updated corona map. See the latest update here.

March 9, 2020 - As COVID-19 puts northern Italy in lockdown, how are things in Croatia as the tourism season approaches? A corona map of Croatia of the few cases in relation to the tourist areas. 

The most searched country of 2018, according to Google, was Croatia, as 'where is Croatia' search terms went through the roof in the wake of the World Cup success of the national team in Russia. 

it is a fact that has stayed with me since. Croatia may have more than 20 million tourists annually, but there are many more who do not know exactly where Croatia is.

And for those who are interested in visiting Croatia, knowing where the tourist hot spots are in a country they cannot place on the map can be a challenge.

It occurred to me that while Italy is becoming the epicentre of the coronavirus outside China, countries such as Croatia - currently with just 12 confirmed cases and no deaths - are perhaps being grouped together in people's minds with the deadly numbers in Italy. 

And, in order to help with the information flow, I thought a corona map of Croatia might serve a useful purpose for people thinking of visiting Croatia but scared of catching the virus. 

As you can see from the map above, some basic information is clear to see. 

• There are currently 12 cases of coronavirus in Croatia, 4 in Varazdin, 5 in Rijeka, 3 in Zagreb.
• There have been no fatalities so far.
• In the 5 countries neighbouring Croatia (Slovenia, Hungary, Serbia, Bosnia and Hercgovina, and Montenegro), there are a total of 35 cases, and zero fatalities.
• None of the existing cases are close to the main coastal tourist destinations of Istria and Dalmatia.
• None of the major coastal airports - Split, Dubrovnik, Zadar and Pula - have been affected.
• The sun is shining. 

There is no hiding the fact that this will be a difficult tourist season in Europe and elsewhere for economies which are dependent on foreign visitors. The decision to travel is an individual one, and it is best made with a clear view of the facts. We hope that this first corona map of Croatia, which we will update as time goes on, will help potential visitors to make a more informed decision. 

For the latest news about coronavirus in Croatia, follow the dedicated TCN section.