October 22, 2020 - The latest official COVID-19 in Croatia weekly report has been released by the Koronavirus government website, covering October 12 to October 8.

* in the last 24 hours

There are currently 26 testing places in the Republic of Croatia that perform RT-PCR analysis and collect samples. All processed samples enter national Croatian Health Insurance Institute platform, which is accessible to all county public health institutes. County public health institutes submit data about positive cases, sources of infection and hotspots as part of their daily reports to the Croatian Institute of Public Health. The Croatian Institute of Public Health collects information about hotspots, hospital treatment of COVID-19 positive persons, COVID-19 positive patients on respirators and the deceased. You can find more about the test centers on the link.

Epidemiological indicators on 19th of October 2020

• Cumulative 7-day rate for the Republic of Croatia: 130,9/100 000
• Cumulative 14-day rate for the Republic of Croatia: 200,0/100 000
• Counties with a cumulative 7-day rate greater than 50/100 000 inhabitants: Grad Zagreb, BBŽ, BPŽ DNŽ, KŽ, KKŽ, KZŽ, LSŽ, MŽ, OBŽ, PSŽ, PGŽ, SMŽ, SDŽ, ŠKŽ, VŽ, VPŽ, VSŽ, Zagrebačka
• Counties with a cumulative 14-day rate greater than 100/100 000 inhabitants: Grad Zagreb, BBŽ, DNŽ, KŽ, KZŽ, LSŽ, MŽ, OBŽ, PSŽ, SMŽ, SDŽ, VŽ, VPŽ, VSŽ, Zagrebačka
• Total number of tests in the last week: 39 660
• Share of positive tests in the total number of tests in the last week: 13,5%
• Total number of tests and share of positive tests in total number of tests: 400 636; 6,5%
• The number of new cases in intensive care per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 7 days: 0,68/100 000
• Number of deaths in the last week: 47
• Total death rate per 1 000 000 population: 91,5/1 000 000

Epidemiological situation in Croatia

Geographical distribution of new COVID-19 cases by counties
In a two-week period from 13th October to 19th of October all counties recorded new cases of COVID-19 disease. The highest number of new cases are recorded in the City of Zagreb, followed by the Splitsko - dalmatinska and Osječko-baranjska County. The lowest number of new cases were recorded in Istarska and Koprivničko-križevačka County. The Krapinsko-zagorska County also has the highest 14-day rate, followed by Ličko-senjska and Međimurska County. 

Figure 1. 14-day rate by counties in Croatia on October 19, 2020.

Figure 1. 14-day rate by counties in Croatia on October 19, 2020.

Epidemic by weeks, from 28th – 34th week of the epidemic
Table 1 shows the epidemiological indicators by epidemic week. The data shows that one of the most important epidemiological indicators - the rate of confirmed cases and the share of positive ones show a positive trend in the period from 28th to 31st week, while in the 32nd and 34th week they grow again with a very large jump at 33rd  and 34th week compared to the week before. The confirmed case rate has been steadily declining since week 31 when it stood at 31,2 to grow again at 32nd and 34th week. The number of new cases increased by 84.8% compared to the week before. The total number of tests, after a slight decline in 32nd and 33rd week, it rose again in 34th week and a total of 38,485 tests were performed. The proportion of positive individuals in total testing also declined by 31st week, and increased at 32nd and 34th week. 

Table 1. Overview of the number of confirmed cases by weeks, from week 28 th to 34th

Table 2 shows a set of indicators related to the severity of the clinical picture and the characteristics of deaths. The table shows that in the period from 28th to 31st week, there has been an increase, and at 32nd and 33rd week a slight decrease in the number of cases on the respirator. At 34th week, there was a significant increase in the number of cases on the respirator, but the share of cases on the respirator in the total and the weekly number of cases did not increase. The share of hospitalized cases in the weekly number of cases ranges from a minimum of 35% to a maximum of 77.1%. The average age of who died does not oscillate significantly. The death rate in the latter stagnated from 29th to 33rd week and increased in 34th week.

Table 2. Overview of patients on respirator and deaths by weeks, from week 28 to 34

Table 3 shows the incidence of the 7-day rate in the two last weeks with a limit of 50/100 000 inhabitants, which in some countries is taken as one of the criteria in assessing the epidemiological situation. After the epidemiological situation calmed down in early October, due to the re-influx of new cases, rates rose again in most counties.

Clinical aspects - Hospitalizations and severity of clinical picture for the period from 13th October to 19th of October
Figure 2 shows the relationship between the daily number of confirmed cases and the daily number of hospitalized cases. Number of hospitalized cases per day ranged between a minimum of 54 and a maximum of 117, while the share of hospitalized cases in the total daily number of confirmed cases ranged from 7.7% to 18.1%.

Figure 2. Overview of the daily number of confirmed and hospitalized cases from 13th to 19th of October

Figure 3 shows the proportion of hospitalized in the total number of weekly cases. Of the total number of confirmed cases in a given weekly period, 10.3% were hospitalized, which is an decrease compared to last week's 11.9%. In the same period, 28 people were put on a respirator, which makes 0,5% of the total number of confirmed cases. On October 19, there were 35 people on the respirator, or 0.7% of the total number of active cases.

The graph in Figure 4 shows that the slope of the curve of confirmed cases is followed by the curve of cured cases, while the curve of active cases, in addition to some ascending, shows stagnation in certain periods related to the continuation of the first wave of the epidemic in Croatia. After changing the duration of isolation of patients, a sharp decline in the number of active cases is recorded and after which the number of active cases stagnated for two weeks, only to grow again in the last two weeks.

Figure 4. Movement of the total number of cases, recovered, deceased and active number of cases from 18th of June till 19th of October

Age-sex distribution of COVID-19 deaths
A total of 267 people died in this wave of epidemics. Most of the people who died had significant comorbidities or were of advanced age. The mean age of the deceased in this wave of epidemics is 77.1 years. One hundred and eight people died on a respirator. An overview of the situation is given in Table 4 and Figure 5.

Table 4. Died people by age and gender in the period from 29th of June till 19th of October

Figure 5. Age and sex distribution of deaths from COVID-19 in the period 29th of June to 19th of October 2020

Deaths for the period from 13th to 19th of October 
In the last week, 27 people died, of which 15 (55.6%) were on a respirator. The distribution by age and sex in the last weeks is shown in Table 5, and by counties in Table 6.

Table 5. Distribution by age and sex of persons who died in the last week

Table 6. New patients and deaths in the last week and total deaths

Epidemiological situation in Croatia

In the last week, new cases have been reported in all counties of continental and coastal Croatia. The highest 7-day rates on 19th October were recorded in continental Croatia, in Krapinsko-zagorska (324.7) and Međimurska County (216.5), followed by the City of Zagreb (197.6) and Virovitičko-podravska (170.1) and Karlovačka County (160.1). In coastal counties, the lowest rate was recorded for a longer period of time in Istarska County (22.5), while higher rates were recorded in other coastal counties. However, they are still significantly lower than in the mainland. Despite the large increase in the number of patients, there are no recorded outbreaks with a large grouping of patients, but it is mainly a large number of hotspots and smaller groupings that certainly have a significant impact on the general epidemiological situation in the country. Patients associated with family gatherings of various contents and circumstances (most often religious rites, birthdays, weddings), celebrations or banquets, choir singing, going out or training and competitions of various sports clubs are still recorded. From these activities of everyday life, infection is transmitted to the work environment, and in that way, there's no work environment which is spared the possibility of more infected people appearing in it. This is how virus outbreaks are recorded and monitored in health care institutions, most often hospitals, but also occasionally in social care institutions, are recorded and monitored. The same principle applies to educational institutions, among which the most infected are in high schools. A significant proportion of sufferers are contacts of previously ill cases.

Age-sex distribution of patients in the last week
In the previous week, a total of 5352 people fell ill - a slightly higher proportion of females (52.5%) than males (47.5%). A similar distribution by sex is present in most age groups, except in age groups up to 1 year of age and from 1 to 7 years where a higher percentage of sick kids are boys. By age groups - approximately the same percentage of patients was recorded in the age groups of children (11.3%) and the elderly (12.4%).The most affected were children of high school age, a total of 310. Adults in the age range of 19 to 65 years made the largest share in the total number of patients last week, actually 4082 (76.3%). The distribution of patients by age did not change significantly compared to last week, except that the share of sick people aged 66 and over increased slightly, from 11.8% to 12.4%. The full view can be found in Figure 6 and Table 7.

Figure 6. Distribution of patients in the last week by age groups

Table 7. Age and sex distribution of patients in the period form from 13th to 19th  of October

Measures
Since the initial adjustment of the measures started at the end of April for the purpose of continuing economic and social activities, measures to maintain physical distance, maintain hand hygiene and disinfection, obligation to wear face masks or medical masks in certain enclosed spaces and for all health professionals, social care providers and employees in catering facilities, and restrictions on the numbers of people at private and public gatherings are continuously in force.
From the end of August, at the suggestion of local headquarters, targeting measures were adopted at the local level. Most of them referred to restrictions on the number of people at weddings, funerals and other private gatherings, measures to organize larger events, bans on visits to hospitals, homes for the elderly people and audiences at sports competitions.

The following decisions were made last week:

• Decision on amendments to the Decision ABOUT the introduction of necessary epidemiological measures for the area of ​​Krapina-Zagorje County (October 19, 2020)
• Decision amending the Decision about the introduction of necessary epidemiological measures for the Primorje-Gorski Kotar County (October 19, 2020)
• Decision amending the Decision about the introduction of necessary epidemiological measures for the area of ​​Sisak-Moslavina County (October 19, 2020)
• Decision about the introduction of necessary epidemiological measures for the area of ​​the City of Zagreb (October 16, 2020)
• Decision on amendments to the Decision about necessary measures for the organization of gatherings attended by more than fifty participants during the declared epidemic of the disease COVID-19 (October 15, 2020)
• Decision about exceptional suspension of the necessary measure of mandatory use of face masks or medical masks for guests in catering facilities in the territory of the County of Istria (October 15, 2020)
• Decision about the introduction of necessary epidemiological measures for the area of ​​Varaždin County (October 15, 2020)
• Decision on Amendments to the Decision about Introduction of Necessary Epidemiological Measures for the Area of ​​Šibenik-Knin County (October 14, 2020)
• Decision amending the Decision about the introduction of necessary epidemiological measures for the area of ​​Međimurje County (October 14, 2020)
• Decision amending the Decision about the introduction of necessary epidemiological measures for the area of ​​Lika-Senj County (October 14, 2020)
• Decision amending the Decision about the temporary ban on crossing the border crossings of the Republic of Croatia (October 14, 2020)
• Decision about temporary regulation of work and working hours in catering (October 13, 2020) 

Last week, new versions of the recommendations of the Croatian Institute of Public Health were published regarding catering, wedding celebrations, professional performances of cultural programs and events, wearing masks and in other circumstances beyond those provided by the decision of the Civil Protection Headquarters.

• Recommendations for the use of face masks, medical and protective masks - ver. 3. It is recommended to wear face masks in all circumstances where the necessary physical distance between people cannot be maintained during their stay outdoors.
• Recommendations for the prevention of COVID-19 infection during professional art performances, cultural programs and events - ver. 5. The recommendations provide wearing face masks during the stay indoors for the duration of professional artistic performances.
• Recommendations for the prevention of infection in catering facilities with and without terraces and in catering facilities in accommodation facilities. Recommendations includes nightclubs and bars, as well as family farms that offer catering services. The changes relate to limiting the number of people who may be present in the facility at the same time. They introduce the term of COVID guard, the obligation of wearing masks for guests while sitting at a table and abolition of standing places and the dance floors. Working hours are recommended until 24:00. It is also recommended to buy tickets online. For visitors to nightclubs and bars is reccomended to measure the temperature at the entrance and to record participants.
• Recommendations for the prevention of COVID-19 infection during wedding ceremonies and celebrations. Recommendations include changes related to limiting the number of people who may be present at the facility at the same time. They introduce the concept of COVID guard, the obligation of wearing masks for guests while sitting at the table, the largest number of people who are allowed to sit at one table and the possibility of dancing is left only to newlyweds and parents or guardians that is, or actually to close family members and only for a solemn dance at the beginning of the wedding celebration. They have been abolished.
• Recommendations for performing food catering activities during the COVID-19 epidemic. The recommendations include changes to limit the number of people allowed to be present at the facility at the same time. They introduce the term COVID guard, the obligation to wear masks for guests until they are sitting at a table.
• Instructions and recommendations for gatherings ver. 2. The instructions are in line with the decisions of the Headquarters, they apply to all gatherings in which more than 50 people participate.

Recommendations and measures on global and EU level

Europe
On 24 th of August 2020, ECDC released an updated version of the risk assessment: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-risk-assessment-increased-transmission-12th-update-september-2020.pdf
 
ECDC has additional documents and information available: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19-pandemic
The number of cases and the 7-day cumulative incidence of COVID-19 confirmed cases worldwide can be found on the ECDC dashboard: https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html

Austria
Bundesministerium für Soziales, Gesundheit, Pflege und Konsumentenschutz – https://www.sozialministerium.at/Informationen-zum-Coronavirus/Neuartiges-Coronavirus-(2019-nCov).html
 
Netherlands
Government of the Netherlands - https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment - https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19

Germany
Rober Koch Institut - https://www.rki.de/DE/Home/homepage_node.html
 
Slovenia
(gov.si) – https://www.gov.si/en/topics/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/
National Institute for Public Health – Slovenia - https://www.nijz.si/en

United Kingdom
gov.uk – https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus
NHS - https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

 
World
WHO provides comprehensive information and documents.
WHO COVID-19-Dashboard: https://covid19.who.int/, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Weekly Epidemiological Update and Weekly Operational Update i Weekly Surveillance Report: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports, https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/weekly-surveillance-report

Sources of information
https://www.hzjz.hr/
https://zdravlje.gov.hr/

Information about the global epidemiological situation
More about COVID-19 in other countries can be found and learned on the ECDC website: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases. The WHO Regional Office for Europe, the European Commission and the European Observatory on Health Systems and Health Policy have at their disposal the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor (HSRM). There is information available about European countries and ways to respond to this epidemic. The focus is on health systems and public initiatives: https://www.covid19healthsystem.org/mainpage.aspx

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October 22, 2020 - Masks in Croatia are mandatory almost everywhere, though one law in the country forbids them inside football stadiums. Here's why. 

Slobodna Dalmacija writes that the first person from Croatia to be infected with the coronavirus was a young man who contracted the virus in the stands of the San Siro stadium in Milan, where he watched the Champions League match between Atalanta and Valencia on February 19.

When he returned to Zagreb, he ended up at the "Dr. Fran Mihaljević" Clinic, and on February 25, Croatia officially recorded the first case of COVID 19. Italian epidemiologists determined at the time that the match in Milan, which had 40,000 spectators, significantly affected the explosive spread of coronavirus in Italy.

Eight months have passed since then, the numbers of infected are higher than ever, we are breaking all records and setting up new hospital tents, and the crowds in Croatian stadiums are reminiscent of those in San Siro - because they don’t have to wear protective masks.

But here's the catch - not only do they not have to, but they are now allowed to wear masks or face coverings inside the stadium. Here's why.

Masks are prescribed in the open where the required distance cannot be kept, but not in the stands, because, according to the provisions of the Law on Preventing Disorderly Conduct at Sports Competitions, masking the face with a hat, scarf or otherwise to conceal identity is considered illegal behavior. When the law was passed, it never occurred to anyone that one day, masks would become a mandatory part of our everyday lives. Epidemiologists, therefore, prescribed only distance for stadiums, but not masks.

When the Croatian Institute of Public Health published the first epidemiological instructions (before spectators returned to the stadiums), they stated that masks were mandatory. However, this was short-lived. A new recommendation was soon published in which masks were not mentioned, but only a distance of a meter and a half and a measurement of body temperature on the day of the match.

Spectators are required by these recommendations to wear a mask as they move around the stadium, as they walk to their seats or wait in line for the toilet, but must remove it when they arrive at their seat.

Before the weekend match between Hajduk and Sibenik, fans were especially warned about the ban on consuming alcoholic beverages, lighting pyrotechnics, bringing banners that incite hatred and violence, and the ban on face coverings, which would make it difficult for the police to identify them should any chaos occur.

GNK Dinamo will begin competing in the Europa League group stage on Thursday, at 9 pm, when Dutch club Feyenoord will play in Zagreb. There will also be spectators in the stands, as the club announced, at 30 percent of the capacity of each section of Maksimir Stadium, and tickets will be on sale until the permitted capacity is filled. And there will be no masks in the stands. Just like last week at Poljud, the club announced that despite epidemiological recommendations, wearing masks at the stadium is not allowed under Article 4 of the Law on Preventing Disorderly Conduct at Sports Competitions.

Only after the match can we expect an assessment of how things went with respect to epidemiological measures, which in practice will be reduced because only 30 percent of the audience capacity is met.

Earnings are not enough for the club to profit from 30% of tickets, but there are still too many fans to control the spread of coronavirus, so the legitimate question is: why are spectators still allowed?

Epidemiologists cringed after fans failed to keep distance in the Croatian First League games, and previously in the games of the Croatia national team in Zagreb, but the Civil Protection Headquarters has not indicated that they will tighten the prescribed measures.

Slobodna Dalmacija asked the head of the National Civil Protection Headquarters Davor Bozinovic, leading epidemiologist Krunoslav Capak, and the executive director of HNS whether there will be any changes in the stands considering the record number of cases in the country, especially considering the previous experiences of non-compliance with measures at Poljud and Maksimir. No one has answered.

Unofficially, Slobodna learned that some members of the Headquarters are discussing re-implementing recommendations we had back in June, but no decision has been made.

Unlike in Croatia, the Greek government reacted urgently. Just after this week's announcement that Greek sports fans will be able to go to stadiums and halls again from October 31, albeit in limited numbers, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said: 

"Holding matches, even with a few spectators, would send the wrong message to the citizens," thus rejecting the plan to return the fans to sporting events.

To read more about sport in Croatia, follow TCN's dedicated page.

ZAGREB, October 22, 2020 - A total of 1,563 new coronavirus cases and 13 related deaths have been confirmed in Croatia in the last 24 hours, the national coronavirus response team reported on Thursday morning. 

This is the largest single-day number of new infections and deaths since the start of the epidemic in the country.

The current number of active cases is 7,380. Among those infected, 661 are receiving hospital treatment for COVID-19 and 46 of them are on ventilators.

Since February 25, when the first cases was confirmed in Croatia, 29,850 people have contracted the novel virus, 406 of them have died and 22,064 have recovered, including 629 in the last 24 hours.

Currently, 25,620 people are in self-isolation. To date, 418,821 coronavirus tests have been performed, including 6,874 in the last 24 hours.

October 22, 2020 - As coronavirus cases rise in Croatia, Health Minister Vili Beros says introducing a curfew is the last resort.

Index.hr reports that Health Minister Vili Beros warned on Wednesday that the number of newly infected is higher than ever and announced that possibly introducing some previous measures will be decided in a few more days.

"If there are no positive developments, it is quite certain that we will introduce some additional, but balanced measures that will primarily refer to the restriction of gatherings," Beros said. He reiterated that citizens could contribute to preventing the spread of the virus through responsible behavior.

"We are the best cure for this pandemic if we respect the measures. Only then can we expect the number of infected to slow down. However, I must say that the virus is spreading horizontally, radiantly among the population. Therefore, we need to be more careful than ever," he said.

He even told reporters that they were too close to each other.

"And you are too close to each other, even though you have masks on and we are outside," Beros said.

When asked about introducing a curfew, Beros answered that some countries had introduced a curfew but that he did not want to give an affirmative answer now. He pointed out that a curfew is the last thing he will introduce if necessary, adding several other measures that can be taken before that.

The head of the National Civil Protection Headquarters, Davor Bozinovic, said on Wednesday that in a situation where the number of people infected is growing, they would focus mostly on punishing all behaviors that are not in line with epidemiological measures, especially legal entities.

During his visit to Jastrebarsko, Bozinovic told reporters that there would be no need for additional activities to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection if the measures already adopted were applied as intended, negotiated, and ultimately prescribed.

"We are monitoring the situation; the numbers are growing, the numbers are growing outside Croatia," said Bozinovic, emphasizing that they will mostly concentrate on prescribed measures, especially the obligations of legal entities that organize events or engage in economic activity with fluctuating people.

In doing so, he said, they will be aimed at sanctioning all behaviors that are not in line with epidemiological measures.

He claimed that they had made a great effort, including the Croatian Institute of Public Health, which made detailed recommendations for all economic and social activities to not close.

"It is an effort that has been translated into concrete recommendations of the Headquarters," said Bozinovic, calling on all citizens to adhere to these measures because it is the only way to slow down the spread of the virus in Croatia.

He emphasized that citizens should refrain from large gatherings, private parties, and meetings as long as the epidemic lasts.

He noted that they prescribe measures for public events, while what happens in homes cannot and should not be controlled. However, he warned that it is in these circumstances that citizens relax the most, which is why the virus spreads when they return to their home or go to work.

"This is not a big philosophy. In practice, it is not comfortable or easy to wear a mask when we cannot maintain physical distance, but it is not so difficult as long as it is the only way to overcome the crisis," he said.

He pointed out that the headquarters can make decisions, and epidemiologists prescribe recommendations, but nothing will be achieved if the citizens do not accept it.

Bozinovic announced the intensified inspections aimed at irresponsible behavior, explaining that the facilities' organizers and owners will be sanctioned if the measures are not adhered to in their facility and stated that a 30 thousand kuna fine is prescribed for dancing in clubs.

To read more about coronavirus in Croatia, follow TCN's dedicated page.

As Poslovni Dnevnik writes on the 21st of October, 2020, this past weekend, Civil Protection inspectors fined five Croatian clubs in the City of Zagreb in the total amount of 150,000 kuna.

One such club was fined 30,000 kuna for exceeding working hours, and the other four were fined the same penalty for having a crowded dance floor, non-compliance with maintaining social distancing between guests and a lack of information at the entrance about the number of guests permitted within the club, Jutarnji list writes.

The possibility of punishing legal entities was announced last Monday by the director of the Croatian Institute of Public Health, Krunoslav Capak. The inspection can impose a fine of 20 to as much as 70 thousand kuna on each legal entity, ie the owner of the premises who fails to comply with the current epidemiological measures and instructions.

As of it now seems, inspectors only fine more serious offenses such as exceeding working hours until midnight, not maintaining social distancing and so-called "irresponsible" dancing. In addition, the total number of guests in the premises must be displayed at the entrance, and is determined by the criterion of four square metres per person.

Mladen Vlaic, head of the Sector for Administrative and Inspection Affairs of PUZ, says that all of the fines written this weekend for the five Croatian clubs punished were in the lowest possible amount.

"The minimum fine under the Civil Protection System Act is 20,000 kuna for a legal entity, and 10,000 kuna for a responsible person in a legal entity. The owners of the Croatian clubs who received a misdemeanor warrant have the opportunity to appeal, and then the court decides on that,'' explained Vlaic, adding that all of the inspected clubs this weekend respected the appointment and arrival of the ''covid guards''.

Last week, more than 2,300 inspections of restaurants, nightclubs, weddings and events were carried out across Croatia, and 259 verbal warnings were issued. The most relaxed were in Split and Osijek. In Osijek, an irregularity was found during every fifth inspection, and in Split during every third. But no fines were written.

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As Novac/Gordana Grgas writes on the 21st of October, 2020, Croatian employers have generally voiced their satisfaction with the announced redesigned Government measures, but HUP warns that labour costs are not the only operating costs, business liquidity for many industries is still seriously jeopardised and that a drop in revenue of less than 40 percent could potentially mean business closure for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Hrvoje Bujas, president of the Voice of Entrepreneurs (Glas Poduzetnika) Association, therefore says that they welcome the introduction of a different modality of support for the preservation of jobs as well as increasing the possibility of reducing working hours, but they demand that the so-called covid-liquidity loans and investment loans are sped up.

"The measures adopted by the government are good for salaries, and in order for the private sector to recover, investments need to be increased. "Some companies are now changing the sectors in which they operate, switching because they have to manage," he explains. He believes that, according to the current situation, the support measures should last at least until April next year.

Regarding the new measures to be adopted by the CES Management Board, the open question is whether the recipients of aid are allowed to give business-related dismissals. The representative of the UAS in the CES Governing Board, Ana Milicevic Pezelj, explained that their position is that this isn't allowed and that the state must set the proper framework for that up.

"We're not asking for Croatian employers to not be allowed to to lay off staff in a certain period after the use of these measures to preserve jobs, but not in the time of their duration, not while using them," she emphasised. This, she added, only applies to business-related dismissals, meaning that the union is not asking for an absolute ban on lay-offs, but believes that Croatian employers "can't have both sheep and money."

Since September, says Ana Milicevic Pezelj, they have noticed a trend in some industries, such as tourism, to engage in business-related lay-offs to permanent employees, along with severance pay, with the announcement that they will be re-employed in the spring, but in another sense.

''This further erodes stable working conditions, and in those cases coronavirus merely serves as an excuse,” she noted. HUP said that dismissals are the last resort for Croatian employers, but given the epidemiological and economic situation, it is possible that in some companies, despite the subsidies, there will be a need to lay off a certain number of workers "so that business can be kept going at a reduced level and so they might keep at least part of their workers,''

They noted that the state co-finances salary amounts, while the employer is still obliged to pay the difference up to the full amount of salary, and that in the conditions of a prolonged crisis and significantly reduced business volume, there is a lack of income that could cover all such costs. HUP is therefore in favour of introducing a model related to percentage drops according to the size of the company, as was the case at the beginning of the introduction of measures back in March.

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As Novac/Gojko Drljaca writes on the 21st of October, 2020, a new wave of coronavirus cases is seeing Europe slide into a double-dip recession scenario, this is the thesis with which The Financial Times has come out. A number of European governments are tightening their epidemiological measures, and an increase in the number of cases is leading to a drop in consumer optimism. What does this mean for Croatian GDP?

After reducing the number of cases during the summer, which saw the easing up of the epidemiological measures and the recovery of European economies, we're now witnessing the continuation of the scenario which, in the event of an increase in the number of cases, envisages a prolongation of what has become the status quo and even a deepening of the recession.

Although the last session of the Croatian National Bank Council a few days ago estimated that Croatia will end the year with a GDP decline of 8 percent and that its growth of 5.2 percent is expected in 2021, we've since learned that the central bank is already thinking about revising their relatively optimistic estimates.

For the final conclusion, the central bank will wait and see if the Croatian Government will react with stricter epidemiological measures that could affect business activities.

Well-informed people claim that the behaviour of Croatian consumers has already started to change due to the growing number of cases of infection, which is reflected in the decline in traffic in some shopping centres and restaurants. It should be noted that the Croatian National Bank has already concluded that "during the third quarter, at the same time as the epidemiological situation worsened, signs of a slowdown in recovery became visible, with consumer and business expectations in services and industry deteriorating in September."

According to a statement from the Croatian National Bank, the annual inflation rate in August remained in negative territory (-0.1 percent), real activities and the labour market are in a much more unfavourable situation than before the pandemic.

Although we had a good tourist season for the year with the pandemic, tourism will still bring much lower revenues in 2020. The Croatian National Bank is cautious because they consider forecasting during a pandemic to be extremely difficult due to numerous unknowns.

''We're in a recession and it's easily possible that in the event of the continuation of this trend of the epidemic, the recession will continue in the fourth quarter, and possibly in the first quarter of next year. Delaying the start of the recovery would deprive Croatian GDP of 1 to 2 percentage points annually. In that case, the decline for 2020 would amount to the previously expected 10-11 percent instead of 8-9 percent, as expected before the autumn wave,'' said economist Velimir Sonje.

Due to the growing number of cases, the tightening of epidemiological measures has been announced by all major European countries. Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain and the Netherlands - all of which recorded strong growth in the number of cases of infection and all took new measures last week.

Smaller European countries facing an increase in the number of cases are behaving identically. The Czech Republic, which has recorded the largest increase in the number of cases, has reached a high level of restrictions. Belgium has announced the closure of cafes and restaurants for four weeks. As of Monday, they are introducing curfews, bans on gatherings and restrictions on the sale of alcohol.

Switzerland has expanded its obligation to wear masks. A nocturnal epidemiological curfew has been introduced in Paris since midnight on Saturday. In Catalonia, bars and restaurants have been closed in and around Barcelona. The Italian authorities are arguing over what to do: part of the government is calling for stronger measures while Conte insists the new rise in cases is not as dangerous as the first, but they will certainly come up with new measures in any case.

In Sweden, the regional authorities are left to advise citizens to reduce their overall mobility and to adhere to social distancing measures.

Fiscal exposure

Senior Allianz economist Katharina Utermohl commented on the surprising growth rate of cases across Europe and stressed that they are already seeing further economic downturn in a number of countries in the fourth quarter.

"A new recession is absolutely possible," Utermohl said. Google’s mobility data in October again points to a significant decline in major European cities. Countries with large service sectors such as France, Spain and Portugal will once again have particularly major problems.

It is very inconvenient that the countries of the European Union have already dramatically increased their fiscal exposure this year due to the global coronavirus pandemic. The European Commission has announced a plan according to which Eurozone members are expected to have an aggregate fiscal deficit of 976 billion euros this year.

This means that national fiscal deficits will be 10 times higher than last year or those projected for this year. Although the European Central Bank's interventions have managed to keep the borrowing costs of the most vulnerable countries (Italy, Greece) very low, the need for new fiscal interventions brings the EU into a completely unexplored territory, which some call "fiscal extravagance".

ECB Governor Christine Lagarde warned over the weekend that fiscal stimulus should continue to be insisted on, regardless of the risks, in order to avoid "labour market hysteria" and prevent a wave of bankruptcy. The IMF also supports this thesis.

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ZAGREB, Oct 21,  2020 - The head of the national Covid response team, Davor Bozinovic, said on Wednesday that as long as the number of people infected with coronavirus continued to grow they would concentrate on punishing violations of epidemiological measures, in particular legal entities.

Bozinovic visited the National Civil Protection Authority's warehouse in Jastrebarsko and told reporters that new measures would not be needed to curb the spread of coronavirus if measures already adopted were adhered to.

"We are monitoring the situation. The numbers are growing. They are growing outside Croatia too," said Bozinovic and underlined that they will concentrate the most on the measures in place, in particular the obligations of legal entities that organize events or other commercial acclivities where people fluctuate.

In that regard, he said, "we will punish any behavior that is not in accordance with the epidemiological measures."

He claimed that they had invested a lot of effort, including the Croatian Institute for Public Health which adopted detailed recommendations for all commercial and social activities so that they would not have to shut down.

"That effort has been transformed into specific recommendations by the response team," said Bozinovic, calling on all citizens to adhere to all measures as the only way to slow down the spread of the virus in Croatia.

He underscored that as long as the epidemic lasts, citizens have to avoid any large gatherings, private parties, and meetings.

He noted that the measures in place were intended for public events and not for events in people's homes. He warned, however, that it is in those circumstances that citizens forget themselves the most which then results in the virus spreading when they go home or back to work.

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ZAGREB, Oct 21, 2020 - Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said on Wednesday that a new lockdown could only be expected as the last resort if the situation escalated so much so that there was no other option.

Croatia today registered 1,424 new cases of the coronavirus infection. Asked whether more restrictive measures, such as a curfew, are being considered, he said that there were two methods.

One method is to view the problem rationally, take measures and raise public awareness of the seriousness of a problem, which is what we are doing, Plenkovic said.

Restrictive measures inevitably lead to negative economic effects, but at the same time state and public institutions receive their salaries, pensioners receive their pensions, and the private sector will get €1 billion. We are taking care of the general interest, he said.

A curfew, restrictive measures, a new lockdown, they are the last resort if the situation escalates so much so that there is no other option, Plenkovic said.

I believe in the strength, vigilance, and responsibility of the Croatian people, he added.

He reiterated that the problem of the pandemic should not be underestimated.

If this were nothing, there would not be 40 million infections in the world, there would not be restrictive measures in Slovenia. We have to get serious, the question is whether we will approach the problem seriously or in a way that will lead to confusion, Plenkovic said.

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ZAGREB, Oct 21, 2020 - Over the past 24 hours, Croatia has registered a record high of 1,424 new coronavirus infections and there have been 11 deaths, the national COVID-19 response team said on Wednesday.

Currently, 622 COVID patients are being treated in hospitals, and 38 of them are on ventilators. The number of active cases stands at 6,459, and there are 24,242 people in self-isolation.

Since February 25, when Croatia registered its first case of the infection, 28,287 people have contracted coronavirus, 393 of them have died, and 21,435 have recovered, including 473 in the last 24 hours.

To date, 411,947 people have been tested for the virus, including 8,255 over the past 24 hours.

This is the third time in a week that the number of single-day cases has exceeded one thousand.

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