As Novac/Veljko Ostojic writes on the 8th of April, 2019, after almost a decade of high growth rates in Croatia's domestic tourism indicators, the dominant feature of this season, at least from the market's point of view, is uncertainty. The only thing we can be sure of, however, is the rapid growth period behind us. Facing Croatia is a period of struggle for each tourist owing to extremely turbulent broadcasting markets.

Such a destiny is shared by all Mediterranean markets with the exception of Turkey, and tourism in the Mediterranean as a whole is influenced by two dominant trends.

The first concerns the general insecurity in the European Union's economy, driven by the slowdown in individual national economies, primarily in big players such as Germany and Italy. An additional element that generates general uncertainty is the potential of Brexit (should it ever happen at all), the real effects of which at this stage can't really be estimated. These movements deter people from spending too much money, which is felt by the lack of bookings and reservations. In the first two months of 2019, the annual cumulative booking from Germany to Croatia was a little less when compared to 2018, while the decline in British tourist reservations throughout the Mediterranean was much more apparent, with Brits booking their holidays in the sun in advance being 10 percent lower on average than last year.

The second trend is the return of an old tourism king, Turkey, which has been a source of discomfort and nerves for Western Mediterranean countries, especially Spain, especially with its policy of subsidised travel arrangements last season, this season, Turkey is set to continue to record high growth rates of reservations from key European emission markets.

Such is an environment that defines the prospects of Croatian tourism not only this year, but over the next few years. The Croatian Tourism Association decided to quantify the effects of these trends on the expectations of Croatian tourist companies and the results of that survey were published in the first issue of Tourism Impulse, which will be published continuously every quarter. They surveyed the fifteen of Croatia's largest tourism companies, which account for 81 percent of the country's hotel sector.

The survey has shown that Croatian travel companies are experiencing revenue declines on one hand, and rising costs, primarily regarding labour, on the other. Croatian tourist companies are expecting slower annual revenue growth by 11.4 percent when compared to last year. Without changing the business environment in which Croatian tourism operates, this will result in a reduction in profitability and of course, a reduction in investment potential. With Croatia's damning reputation among foreign investors on the world stage, this really is the last thing it needs to seek to encourage.

The rather damp expectations of some of Croatia's largest tourist companies also show a drop in profitability this year by almost five percent and, as a consequence, the reduction of investments this year by a concerning twenty percent. Over the next two years, a further decline in investment is expected at a rate of 33 percent when compared to the periods in 2018 and 2019.

Reducing investment potential in tourism has a significant impact on the long-term prospects of Croatia's tourism. It is clear to all that in the long-term, Croatia must compete exclusively with quality rather than price. Reducing prices as much as possible to compete with Turkey on a surface level will only destroy the Croatian coast and Croatia's tourism sector as a whole. This isn't an option.

To be able to really compete with quality, apart from having determination to do so, it is crucial to attract and stimulate investments, something Croatia lacks in, and rather severely.

For that, Croatia will have to make numerous significant changes to its business framework. Today, Croatia is one of the least competitive in investing in tourism in the entire Mediterranean and has the highest tax burden of them all, especially if we look at the VAT rate. Spain, France and Italy have a reduced their VAT rates to help boost tourism. Croatias VAT rate, however, is 13 percent for hotel accommodation and 25 percent for hospitality services. Only Denmark is operating anywhere close to that in the whole of Europe, and one can hardly compare Croatia to Denmark.

Tourism directly and indirectly generates nearly twenty percent of Croatia's GDP, the sector generated eleven percent of all investments in Croatia. There is a lot of discussion about the optimal structure of the economy in which tourism makes up such a big part of it, and this, like many such discussions in Croatia, is often a waste of time. In a situation where tourism is experiencing significant growth rates and becoming an increasingly important factor in the receptive Mediterranean market, such discussions are quite unnecessary.

Of course, the priority requirement for Croatia's tourism growth is to boost investment, which will continually increase the country's overall quality.

If VAT on the entire tourist service is reduced to the level of Croatia's competitive countries, tourism can attract an additional three billion euros of investment, it can increase employee salaries by twenty percent and continue to rise over the next few years, which will further stabilise budget revenues and raise the standard life in Croatia in general.

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As Adriano Milovan/Novac writes on the 2nd of April, 2019, the economic expansion period for most of the transition countries, including the Republic of Croatia, is now over, and in the coming years we can count only on very modest rates of economic growth, this was the message from experts from the renowned Vienna Institute for International Economics Studies (WIIW).

According to the latest forecasts of the Vienna Institute, this year, Croatia can expect a growth rate of 2.6 percent. However, in the coming years, economic growth will slow down even more, meaning that the Croatian economy will likely grow at a rate of 2.5 percent in 2020 and again in 2021. Although the GDP growth rate of 2.5 percent doesn't deviate much from the previous growth rates in Croatia, given that they were still less than in other comparable countries of the so-called "New Europe", it's worth noting that this rate is still less than was previously expected.

Additionally, and more concerningly yet, the Republic of Croatia will be among the new EU member states with the lowest rates of economic growth of all. On the other hand, the fastest growing economies among transition countries will rather surprisingly be non-EU European countries, such as Kosovo and Albania and even more surprisingly, Moldova, at least according to an analysis taken by the esteemed Vienna Institute. According to these forecasts, Kosovo's economy, for example, was to grow at a rate of 4.1 percent this year, in the following year at a rate of four percent, and in 2021, at a rate of 3.9 percent.

In their forecasts, the analysts of the Vienna Institute cited the slowdown of economic growth in the world as a whole, especially in Germany, and the strengthening of protectionism in world trade and uncertainty brought about by Brexit (should it occur at all), as among the main reasons for the ''cooling'' of the transition economies.

Openly, however, the question remains about how the current crisis in Uljanik will reflect on the Croatian economy as a whole. Vladimir Gligorov, a longtime analyst at the Vienna Institute and now an external associate, says the events in Uljanik will have negative effects on the Croatian economy in the short term, primarily through the activation of state guarantees and the cost of dealing with former workers who will be left jobless, but in the medium term, it shouldn't actually reflect all that much on the macroeconomic image of the country that significantly.

The attitudes of Croatian macroeconomists, Zeljko Lovrinčević from the Zagreb Institute of Economics and Zdeslav Šantić, the chief economist of OTP banka, don't differ significantly from the above statement from the Vienna Institute, and they also don't expect huge consequences on the Croatian economy from the collapse of Uljanik. Moreover, Lovrinčević believes that the first half of this year could be even better for Croatia than expected, whereas we will likely only feel a slight slowdown in the second half of this year and next year.

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Click here for the original article by Adriano Milovan for Novac/Jutarnji