ZAGREB, 16 Feb 2022 - Financial stability risks remain increased compared to the period before the crisis due to uncertainties surrounding the end of the pandemic, rising inflation, residential real estate price hikes, and geopolitical risks, the Croatian National Bank (HNB) Council concluded on Wednesday.

The economy continued to grow in the last quarter of 2021, albeit at lesser intensity than previously in the year, with industrial production increasing, while the real retail turnover and construction stayed at Q3 levels, the HNB said in a press release.

In Q4 2021, employment continued to increase while the unemployment rate dropped, making their levels better than before the pandemic. Nominal pay growth also continued to accelerate, while inflation resulted in a decrease of the real pay average.

In December, the annual inflation rate increased to 5.5% from 4.8% in November. Higher food prices contributed the most to that. Together with energy prices, they are increasingly influencing inflation.

The continuation of expansionary monetary policy continues to stimulate the fall of banks' interest rates. Keeping interest rates on the money market at zero is accompanied by a mild increase in sovereign bond yields.

At the end of last year, bank lending increased 3.9% year on year, just as it did at the end of 2020. Household lending went up from 2.1% in December 2020 to 4.5% last December, primarily as a result of a strong increase in housing loans. Corporate lending decreased from 5.6% to 2.3%.

Although a strong economic recovery enabled a gradual revocation of government aid to businesses, new waves of the pandemic continue to cause problems in global supply chains, stimulating price growth.

Hence, there is a prominent risk of long-term inflationary pressures and higher inflation than currently forecast, which could prompt a faster and stronger tightening of the monetary policies of the largest monetary markets' central banks.

Increased volatility on financial markets at the start of this year is reflected in uncertainty about inflation trends, the evolution of monetary policies and expected interest rate growth.

Residential real estate prices increasingly further from fundamentals

Last year saw a strong increase in housing loans in Croatia as well as residential real estate prices, which went up to 9% in Q3. Those prices are moving further and further from long-term trends and macroeconomic fundamentals, increasing the risk of their fall in case of economic disruptions.

Increased household borrowing is accompanied by relatively mild borrowing standards which again this year, will be supported by government subsidies. These may, at the start of the repayment period, pose a smaller burden on borrowers but when the subsidies expire, they increase repayment costs as well as vulnerability to possible shocks.

In response to the continued accumulation of cyclical systemic risks, notably the rise in residential real estate prices and housing lending, the HNB has announced increasing the countercyclical capital buffer rate for Croatia from 0% to 0.5% as of 31 March 2023.

The aim is to set aside additional capital in time in order to boost the resilience of credit institutions to possible losses due to cyclical risks, the press release said.

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ZAGREB, 31 Oct, 2021 - Increased uncertainty about future economic trends is leading to an increase in savings, according to an analysis by the Croatian Chamber of Commerce (HGK) on the occasion of World Savings Day, marked on 31 October.

Data from the Croatian National Bank (HNB) show household deposits at the end of September 2021 were HRK 240.3 billion, up HRK 20 billion or 9.1% from September 2020 and up HRK 1.6 billion or 0.7% from August 2021.

Citing HNB data from August, they underscored that a year-on-year growth of deposits was recorded in all counties.

In terms of the distribution of household deposits by banks, the concentration of deposits is the highest in the City of Zagreb, whose citizens had HRK 67.2 billion in savings at the end of August, a share of 29% percent.

Broken down by counties, per capita deposits exceed HRK 50,000 in the Adriatic Croatia counties, with the exception of Lika-Senj County, while the City of Zagreb and Zagreb County are the only continental counties to register such per capita deposits.

Istria County tops the list with per capita deposits of HRK 85,249, followed by the City of Zagreb (HRK 83,049), while Vukovar-Srijem County (HRK 26,068) ranks last. At the level of Croatia, per capita deposits amount to HRK 57,555, up from last year's HRK 53,103, the HGK analysis showed.

The share of time deposits is 33.6%, down 4.7 percentage points compared to the end of last year, while the share of savings deposits has reached 35%, up 2.2 percentage points, and the share of deposit money has reached 31.4%, up 2.5 percentage points.

Huge oscillations in savings

Josip Zaher of the HGK said in a statement carried by the press release that the increase in savings of Croatian citizens was not surprising given that in every crisis, this time caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, people always saved more.

As long as uncertainty regarding future economic trends is heightened, the same will apply to savings, said Vedran Šošić of the HNB, underscoring that oscillations in saving were huge.

Thus, amid the outbreak of the pandemic and the consequent lack of goods, and especially services, as well as caution and fear due to a potential loss of income, savings doubled overnight.

The reopening of the economy and the recovery of confidence enabled a gradual return to pre-pandemic patterns of spending and savings, although savings are generally still slightly higher than usual, said Šošić.

He also said that the majority of money surpluses accumulated after the outbreak, citizens deposited in banks. Also, savings were directed to the repayment of consumer debt, and investment in residential real estate is always popular, so housing loans grew increasingly fast, with increasingly obvious signs of overvaluation.

Member of the Management Board of the pensions funds management company Raiffeisen, Eva Horvat, stressed that nearly 400,000 Croatian citizens were saving in one of the voluntary pension funds, which contained assets of HRK 7.3 billion.

Savings growth constant in Croatia

On the occasion of World Savings Day, Zagrebačka Banka (Zaba) also released an analysis, in which Hrvoje Dolenec said that savings growth was constant in Croatia, and the reasons for that were the growth of GDP, living standards and disposable income.

"In the past two and a half years, the movement of financial assets of the Croatian population indicates an acceleration of that growth. This was especially evident during the pandemic, when the acceleration of savings was partly forced, due to limited movement and travel and less available services, such as restaurants, cafes, recreational activities, and partly voluntary, out of precaution and concern for the future," said Dolenec, noting that deposits and cash together accounted for nearly half of the total financial assets of households.

Igor Pavlović of Zaba underscored that low interest rates were certainly among the most important reasons for the reduction in the habit of opting for time deposits.

(€1 = HRK 7.509157)

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