September 4, 2020 - The Independent Institute of Health Metrics and Assessments (IHME) in Washington has published the latest COVID-19 predictions in Croatia, which are quite grim.

Slobodna Dalmacija reports that the current death toll from COVID-19 in Croatia is 194, and IHME predicts that there will be 225 deaths in Croatia by October 1, 2002.

In compliance with the current epidemiological measures or if they are mitigated, they expect that by January 1, 2021, an average of 52 infected people will die daily in Croatia. By the same date, they predict that there will be 1,267 deaths in the country.

The model also envisages a situation in which everyone would adhere to the mandatory measure of wearing masks in public, and that in that case, there would be 230 deaths in Croatia by January 230.

They also calculated that we would need almost 2,000 hospital beds for the patients at the beginning of next year and as many as 493 ventilators.

The projections are made according to the latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and are subject to change depending on the epidemiological situation in the country.

Although this scenario seems very pessimistic, let us hope that IHME may have overestimated the death toll this time as it happened in their previous projection.

Namely, the institute has already corrected their projections for Croatia this summer.

Thus, in the first wave of the pandemic, they estimated that Croatia would have about 166 deaths, or about sixty more than actually died.

Shortly afterward, they corrected the projections and predicted that there could be 122 COVID-19 deaths by early October. The calculation model was changed after Nenad Bakic objected to the institute, and was supported by Nobel laureate Michael Levitt.

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April 8, 2020 - According to projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Croatia is set to reach its peak on April 20.

Index.hr reports that during the worst week of April 18-25, an average of seven citizens could die every day, according to these projections. By August 4, there will be 166 victims of the pandemic. 

The death toll depends on the capacity of the health systems

The University of Washington experts say the death toll depends on the capacity of health systems. In that sense, Croatia is doing well. According to the projected pandemic, Croatian patients should occupy 255 hospital beds at the height of the infection, out of the six and a half thousand in our health care system. A similar situation is with beds in intensive care units with a capacity of 216. And according to IHME's prediction, at the height of the crisis in Croatia, 61 patients will be in intensive care.

According to the most pessimistic estimates, more than 20 patients will die in the country during the peak period

These estimates represent the mean, but in the worst-case scenario predicted by IHME in Croatia, more than 20 patients would die daily during the peak of the pandemic. Even in such a black scenario, Croatia would have enough beds and ventilators, thus positioning Croatia better than many more developed and wealthier countries.

Estimates for some developed countries are not optimistic.

Otherwise, one of the worst estimates is for the UK, where more than 100,000 beds will be needed at worst times, with fewer than 18,000 available. Therefore, more than 66,000 people are expected to die there in August. The United States will miss 36,654 beds and the peak of the crisis will come on April 15, when more than 3,000 will die.

There should be just over 150,000 deaths across Europe, with 81,766 lives lost in the United States.

You can see the COVID-19 projections in Croatia HERE

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