ZAGREB, 26 February, 2021 - Croatia's GDP contracted by a record 8.4% in 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic, with the decline slowing down in the last quarter compared to the previous quarters of the year, the State Bureau of Statistics (DZS) reported on Friday.

GDP fell by 7% in the fourth quarter of 2020 year on year. The decline was slightly lower than forecast by analysts.

Six analysts polled by Hina projected the Q4 GDP decline at 7.3%, their estimates ranging from 6.5% to 8.3%.

It was the third quarter in a row that GDP had fallen on the year, resulting from restrictive measures aimed at curbing the coronavirus pandemic.

However, the fall in Q4 was less than in the preceding quarters. GDP contracted by 15.4% in Q2, the biggest drop since 1995 when DZS started tracking such data, while dropped by 10% in Q3.

GDP contracted by a record 8.4% for the entire year. Before that, the record fall of 7.3% was recorded at the start of the 2009 global financial crisis.

As Novac/Marina Klepo writes on the 23rd of November, 2020, after falling 15.1 percent in the second quarter, seven Hina analysts predict that the Croatian GDP will sink slightly less in the summer quarter, averaging 10.4 percent. Their estimates range from 9.5 to 11 percent, and if they materialise, despite a better-than-expected tourist season, Croatia will find it extremely difficult indeed to avoid one of the biggest declines among all EU countries.

According to the first Eurostat data for 21 countries, the average decline across the EU in the third quarter was 4.3 percent, and except for the United Kingdom with a deficit of 9.6 percent, the Spanish economy was most heavily affected with a decline of 8.7 percent, while in In Italy it stood at 4.7 percent.

Tourist spending

As one Hina analyst explained, with the easing of anti-epidemic measures during the summer months, most activities began to recover and the first high-frequency indicators confirmed growth in the third quarter compared to the March-June period, but a relatively high annual Croatian GDP decline is inevitable.

CBS datas show that retail trade turnover fell by 7.6 percent in the third quarter when compared to the same period last year, among other things due to significantly lower tourist spending. At the same time, industrial production fell by 1.3 percent, the value of merchandise exports in the first nine months of 2020 was 4.8 percent lower than it was during the very same period last year, and imports fell by an alarming 10.1 percent. Finally, government spending remains the only component of Croatian GDP that mitigated these utterly negative trends.

The CNB estimates that the ''real'' Croatian GDP in the first nine months of this year was 8.3 percent lower than it was back during the same period last year. Given the rapidly deteriorating epidemiological situation, expectations for the fourth quarter have also deteriorated alongside it.

Economic analysts also expect that Croatian GDP will continue to decline very sharply indeed because of, among other things. lower amounts of disposable income, lower festive spending and a further decline in exports. According to their expectations, the decline this year will stand at around 9.2 percent, similar to the EC's forecasts, which are at 9.6 percent, while the Croatian Government and the CNB believe that it will amount to 8 percent.

Next year, however, the government and the CNB are currently convinced that the domestic economy will grow by 5 percent, and the European Commission believes that its growth will stand at a decent 5.7 percent. The latest EBRD forecasts, on the other hand, claim that there will be slightly more modest growth in 2021, of only 3.5 percent. In addition, they point out that negative risks prevail, especially those related to the spread of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. The EBRD has since reiterated its position that Croatia needs structural reforms in order to properly increase the competitiveness of the economy, and in addition to those already undertaken, the improvement of the quality of Croatia's typically horrendous institutions and governance is considered to be particularly important.

The business environment

In addition, as they point out in the latest Transition Report, it is necessary to improve the business environment in Croatia and remove all of the draconian and mostly entirely unnecessary red tape and administration, but also to diversify the economy properly. The current pandemic, according to the EBRD, has shown the danger of relying too much on one or two sectors, and Croatia must now think twice about lying on its tourism laurels.

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ZAGREB, November 22, 2020 - Despite the fact that Croatia's economy somewhat recovered from the record decline in the second quarter, thanks to activities after the lockdown, analysts estimate that in the third quarter it also fell at a double digit rate compared to the previous year.

The national statistical office (DZS) will release at the end of next week the first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for Q3, and seven analysts who took part in Hina's survey expect a drop in GDP of 10.4% on the year.

Their estimates of the decline range from 9.5% to 11%.

Economy in recession

That will be the second quarter in a row that the economy declines on the year, which means it has entered a recession, but the decline will be milder compared to the record 15.1% drop in the previous quarter.

The record decline in Q2 was a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic and restrictive measures aimed at curbing the spread of the virus, which paralysed economic activity from the second half of March to the end of April.

"When the measures were relaxed in June, and especially during the summer months, most activities already started to recover. First high-frequency indicators confirm that Q3 will see a growth compared with the period from March to June, but a relatively steep decline in GDP on the year is inevitable," one of the analysts said.

Personal consumption continues to decline

The decline is mainly due to weak personal consumption, which is the largest component of GDP. Data from the national statistical office show that retail trade turnover fell by 7.6% in Q3 compared to the same period last year.

"That is mainly a consequence of trends in hospitality services, which didn't manage to compensate for losses caused by the closure of the economy even during the summer months, and tourist spending was markedly lower compared to the previous year," it was said in the survey.

Even though the summer tourist season was slightly better than expected at the start of the coronavirus crisis, the decline in tourist turnover was sharp.

According to the DZS's data, there were 6.6 million tourists in commercial accommodation establishments in the first nine months of 2020, which is a drop of about 63% from the same period last year, while the number of tourist nights dropped by 54% to 39.7 million.

The decline in industrial production also had a negative effect on GDP. In the past quarter, production dropped by 1.3% on the year.

That is a consequence of weak domestic demand, as well as foreign demand, as indicated by the decline in exports since the start of the year.

According to the DZS's data, the value of exports of goods in the first nine months of 2020 totalled about HRK 80 billion, which 4.8% less compared to the same period last year, while imports dropped by 10.1%, to approximately HRK 126 billion.

"High levels of uncertainty and worsening expectations also curbed stronger investment, while government spending is the only GDP component that is mitigating the negative trends on the demand side with its growth," one of the analysts said in Hina's survey.

Second wave of corona crisis

Because of the second wave of coronavirus spreading in Croatia and Europe, analysts also expect an economic decline in Q4 compared to the previous year.

It is expected that holiday spending and tourist activity will weaken due to epidemiological measures.

In addition, a further decline in exports and imports is expected, given the new restrictive measures introduced in most European countries due to the second wave of coronavirus, as is recession in Croatia's largest trading partners, Italy and Germany.

Deep, but brief recession?

Because of all this, a record decline in economy is expected in the entire 2020.

According to Hina's survey, seven analysts on average estimate that in the entire 2020 the economy could decline by 9.2%. Their estimates of the decline range from 8% to 10%.

The estimates of the decline have slightly decreased since three months ago analysts on average expected a drop of 10.5%.

According to one analyst, some of the reasons for that include a somewhat salvaged main tourist season, the resilience of construction (more) and industry (less) to negative trends, reduced gap in trade in goods (goods exports more resilient than imports) and, finally, the government's fiscal impulse through wage subsidies and maintaining household income levels, as well as the moratorium on loan repayment.

Despite being mitigated, this year's economic downturn could be greater than during the 2009 financial crisis, when the GDP dropped by a record 7.4%.

The government itself expects a greater drop in economy than in 2009, so it estimates that the GDP will decline by 8%.

The Croatian National Bank also expects a drop of about 8%, while the European Commission estimates that Croatia's economy will decline by 9.6% this year.

While the drop in GDP in 2020 will likely be deeper than during the global financial crisis, it is expected that this recession will be shorter. Then, the recession lasted for six years, while this time the economy is expected to grow as soon as next year.

ZAGREB, Sept 8, 2020  - Croatia is among the EU countries with the sharpest GDP declines in Q2 of this year compared with the previous quarter, according to Eurostat's estimate released on Tuesday. 

In the second quarter of 2020, compared with the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 11.4% in the EU and by 11.8% in the euro area. In the first quarter of the year, GDP had declined by 3.3% in the EU and by 3.7% in the euro area.

Compared with the second quarter of 2019, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 13.9% in the EU and by 14.7% in the euro area, following declines of 2.7% and 3.2% respectively in the first quarter.

Spain sees by far the sharpest drop

All the EU member states recorded declines in economic activity in the second quarter, both month on month and year on year.

The sharpest quarterly decline, of 18.5%, was recorded in Spain, followed by Croatia (-14.9%), Hungary (-14.5%), Greece (-14.0%), Portugal (-13.9%) and France (-13.8%). In the first quarter of the year, Croatia observed a GDP decline of 1.3% quarter on quarter. 

Germany, the EU's strongest economy, saw its GDP shrink by 9.7%.

The lowest quarterly declines of GDP were observed in Finland (-4.5%), Lithuania (-5.5%), and Estonia (-5.6%).

Compared with the second quarter of 2019, the largest GDP declines were recorded in Spain (-22.1%), France (-18.9%), and Italy (-17.7%). The German economy contracted by 11.3%.

Croatia's GDP fell by 15.1% compared with the second quarter of last year, while in the first quarter of this year it had grown by 0.3% year on year.

The lowest annual declines were observed in Ireland (-3.7%) and Lithuania (-4.0%).  

A heavy blow to employment

The pandemic and measures put in place to contain the spread of the infection dealt a heavy blow to employment both in the EU and the euro area, resulting in the sharpest declines in the number of people employed in both zones since Eurostat started tracking data.

The number of employed persons decreased by 2.7% in the EU and by 2.9% in the euro area in the second quarter of 2020 compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of this year, employment had declined by 0.2% in the EU and by 0.3% in the euro area.

Compared with the second quarter of 2019, employment fell by 2.9% in the EU and by 3.1% in the euro area, after increasing by 0.4% in both zones in the first quarter.

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ZAGREB, Aug 31, 2020-  A measure that was introduced to stop the enforcement of money debts, thus unblocking debtors' accounts, expires on October 18 and the Financial Agency will again start enforcing debt payments from citizens' accounts who have not settled their debts, the Jutarnji List daily reported on Monday.

The government will definitely not extend the suspension of enforcement procedures which means that a real tsunami of enforcement procedures can be expected in October and November, the daily writes.

According to information from public notary circles, about 400,000 citizens could have their accounts blocked overnight. With the record fall in GDP in the second quarter of 15.1%, an expected loss of jobs, which in the tourism sector alone could be more than 60,000, Croatia is just one step away from a very black autumn scenario.

Some sources in the government have said that the measures to help the commercial sector and citizens that were introduced cannot be extended, but that the government is not neglecting the social component. Scenarios are being prepared for an as painless transition as possible from the complete suspension of enforcement procedures to their reintroduction.

The only option that could help citizens and that would not stint creditors too much would be to allow debt repayments in installments.

The civic rights department in the Ministry of Justice and Public Administration has already prepared a draft document to present to the chamber of public notaries, the daily writes.

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ZAGREB, August 28, 2020 - Due to the consequences of the coronacrisis, Croatia's GDP contracted by a record 15.1% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the same period last year and analysts expect a record fall in GDP for the entire year but note that the fall could be milder in the next two quarters.

The State Bureau of Statistics (DZS) released its initial estimates on Friday according to which GDP in the second quarter fell by 15.1% on the year, falling for the first time since mid-2014.

This is also the greatest fall since 1995 when the DZS started collecting data on GDP. Until now, the highest ever drop in GDP was recorded in Q1 2009, at the start of the global financial crisis.

Six analysts polled by Hina expected GDP to drop on the year by an average 13.9%, with their estimates ranging from 12% to 17%.

In the second half of March already economic activity was partially or completely halted in a bid to curb the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, and together with exceptionally high uncertainly, this strongly impacted the business and consumer confidence index while leading to high rates of decline in almost all activities, analysts at the Raiffeisenbank Austria (RBA) said in a comment on the latest DZS figures.

Prior to the figures being released RBA analysis expected GDP in 2020 to contract by 8.5%. 

"The latest figures confirm that the fall in 2020 will be significantly greater. The greatest contribution to the fall for the entire year will be the fall in personal consumption due to increased unemployment, reduced employment and decrease in available income whereas investments will decrease significantly or will be deferred under the influence of great uncertainty," RBA analysts said.

Saravanja: The worst has passed

The sharp fall in GDP was expected. Drops were recorded in almost all of the most important segments and in double-digit figures at that, except for government expenditure...This year, due to the modest tourism season and lower investments, as a consequence of the fall in consumption, reserves have had a negative impact on GDP, Goran Saravanja of the Imelum consulting company said.

Saravanja expects GDP for the entire year to drop at a higher rate than in 2009, when the economy plunged by 7.4% at the start of the financial crisis.

The better-than-expected tourism season will buffer the fall in the next two quarters. "The worst has passed. We reached the bottom in the second quarter," he added.

The fact that tourist turnover will be significantly lower than for the same period last year will result in an economic decline in the third quarter too.

According to Eurostat data, GDP in the EU fell by 11.7% compared to Q1 and by 14.1% on the year. Croatia's figures are poorer than the European Union average.

As a consequence it is clear that Croatia's economy will dive into a recession, which is defined as a GDP fall for two consecutive quarters.

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ZAGREB, August 28, 2020 - Croatia's economy in the second quarter of 2020 contracted by a record high of 15.1% compared to the same period last year, this being its biggest fall since Croatia started collecting data on GDP, caused by the coronavirus crisis.

The State Bureau of Statistics (DZS) released its initial estimates on Friday according to which GDP in the second quarter fell by 15.1% on the year, falling for the first time since mid-2014.

This is also the greatest fall since 1995 when the DZS started collecting data on GDP. Until now, the highest ever drop in GDP was recorded in Q1 2009, at the start of the global financial crisis.

The fall in GDP in Q2 this year is greater than analysts had expected.

Six analysts polled by Hina expected GDP to drop on the year by an average 13.9%, with their estimates ranging from 12% to 17%.

The sharp decline in the economy in the second quarter is the consequence of the coronavirus pandemic and restrictive measures introduced to curb the pandemic, which paralysed commercial activities from mid-March until the end of April.

Sharp fall in consumption, investments, exports...

Due to the pandemic a sharp fall was recorded in personal consumption.

Household consumption plunged by 14% in Q2 2020 compared to Q2 2019.

Gross investments in fixed capital contracted by 14.7% year on year.

The export of commodities and services sunk by 40.6%.

The exports of commodities was 10.9% while the export of services plummeted by 67.4%. The import of commodities and services contracted too, by 28.1%, with commodity imports contracting by 25.3% and imports of services by 42.5%.

State spending however increased in Q2 by 0.7% on the year.

Figures poorer than EU average

According to seasonally adjusted data, GDP in Q2 fell by 14.9% compared to Q1 and by 15.1% on the year.

These figures are poorer than the European Union average. According to Eurostat data, GDP in the EU fell by 11.7% compared to Q1 and by 14.1% on the year.

DZS said that due to the circumstances related to the coronavirus crisis, some data may not be precise.

"Difficulties in gauging economic growth, particularly in service activities, might result in a potentially greater revision of GDP figures for the quarter," DZS said.

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ZAGREB, Aug 26, 2020 - Finance Minister Zdravko Maric said on Wednesday the GDP drop in this year's second quarter was expected to be larger than the largest drop during the global financial crisis.

The national statistical office is expected to issue a report on GDP in Q2 on Friday.

Responding to questions from the press, Maric said the government would present new forecasts for the whole year in the first two weeks of September.

The largest GDP drop to date, of 8.8%, was recorded in Q1 2009, at the start of the global financial crisis.

Six analysts polled by Hina expect GDP to drop 13.9% year on year. This will be the first drop since mid-2014 and the largest since 2000.

Maric said everyone realized how much the state-supported the economy this year via job retention measures, but added that this could not be done indefinitely.

New programs are opening up, such as the EU's SURE program, from which Croatia is expected to receive €1 billion in favorable loans which will most likely be used to finance a shorter working week.

Maric said Croatia fared even better with the Next Generation EU instrument, the coronavirus recovery plan in which Croatia will have €9.4 billion at its disposal. He said the big challenge now was to draw the highest amount possible as quickly and as effectively as possible.

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ZAGREB, May 26, 2020 - Croatia's foreign debt totaled HRK 41.1 billion in January, falling by 6.5% compared to January 2019, however RBA analysts predict a rise in the debt throughout 2020 due to the corona crisis.

Croatia's gross foreign debt of 41.1 billion at the end of January 2020 rose by 0.6% from December 2019 when it amounted HRK 40.9 billion, however, it contracted by 2.8 billion euros or by 6.5% on the year, according to the figures recently published by the Croatian National Bank (HNB).

However, considering the new circumstances in connection with the coronavirus pandemic that caused a lockdown globally as well as in the Croatian economy, RBA analysts expect the deterioration in Croatia's external vulnerability.

The analysts said that a positive streak in the current account since 2013 would be likely snapped, and the country's gross foreign debt would rise both in the real and nominal terms.

"Recovery and relaunching the economic activity, which will require high amounts of funding, will lead to a rise in the borrowing abroad by all key sectors," said the analysts of the Raiffeisenbank Austria (RBA).

The recall that the government has recently planned more borrowing both on the local and foreign markets.

As a result of growing debt and the expected sharp economic downturn, Croatia's gross foreign debt to GDP ratio is likely to increase, too.

At the end of 2019, Croatia's gross foreign debt to GDP ratio was 75.7%.

(€1 = HRK 7.579243

ZAGREB, May 24, 2020 - Analysts polled by Hina on Croatia's GDP trends in the first quarter of 2020 give different opinions on whether the economy grew or contracted in that period, however, they all estimate that it is going to decline, anyway, this year due the corona crisis.

The national statistical office (DZS) will release first estimates of the Q1 economic growth in a few days, and the six analysts polled by Hina are divided in their estimates whether Croatia's growth was positive or negative.

Thus, three analysts forecast a decline ranging between 0.5% and 4% in the Q1 2020. If the estimates prove correct, this will bring an end to a rising streak since mid-2014.

The other three analyses predict positive growth between 0.5% and 1%. If these estimates prove correct, it will mean that this will be the slowest growth rate since the end of 2014.

All six analysts also assess that personal consumption remains the biggest contribution to GDP.

The retail trade in Q1 2020 increased by 0.9% compared to the corresponding period in 2019. This was, however, a slower pace than the growth of this parameter in recent years.

On the other hand, the outbreak of COVID-19 and the consequences of that pandemic, including the lockdown in the second half of March as well as travel restrictions that affected the tourist trade, were the reasons for a drastic slump in consumption.

Croatia's economic output in the Q1 2020 plunged 4.2% on the year, and exports stagnated.

Sharpest economic decline in Q2 since coronavirus lockdown begins to take a toll

The six analysts also predict the sharpest downturn in Q2 2020 since the start of keeping statistics in 2000. The estimated decline is between 15% and 25%.

At the outbreak of the financial crisis in Croatia in early 2009, the economy contracted 8.8%, which was a record plunge. 

Corona crisis to be shorter than financial one just over a decade ago

The sharp slump in the second quarter of this year is expected to be offset to some extent by the economic performance in the second half of 2020 when lockdown measures are likely to be eased and enterprises can begin the business as normal. 

Thus, the analysts' growth estimates for the whole of this year are between -7.5% and -12.5%.

EC: Croatia can quickly rebound in 2021, as it is in better shape than in 2008

On 6 May, the European Commission said that Croatia’s economy entered the COVID-19 crisis in significantly better shape than the crisis in 2008 and is expected to quickly recover in 2021.

After the contraction of an estimated 9.1% in 2020 due to the corona crisis, Croatia's economy is likely to rebound at a rate of 7.5% in 2021, according to the EC spring forecasts. The EC forecasts are more optimistic than the Croatian government's projections of the downturn of 9.4% in 2020 and the  6.1% rebound next year.