According to the most recent forecasts, Winter in Croatia is finished. In the current part of the climatological winter, which began on December 1, we have not yet had a single winter cyclone, and no significant snowfall, even in most of the higher elevations.
According to a report by DHMZ, measurable snow cover has been only recorded at 5 locations in Croatia as of this morning, the most of which was 5 centimeters in Zavižan, which will quickly melt, Istramet reports.
The lowlands of the interior of Croatia have recorded only a brief snowfall this winter, and central Istria has not even had any snow.
Croatia Temperatures Noticeably Above Average
In terms of temperature, we are well above average, especially in the highlands and the Adriatic. The plains of the interior of Croatia have been spared from temperature extremes by a prolonged inversion, but due to the more intense sun and wind, they will be even less frequent in the coming weeks.
Weekly Forecasts Indicate That Winter is Over
According to the ECMWF monthly forecast published on the EFFIS website today, winter in Europe is over.
Specifically, a positive temperature deviation is expected every week until March 1, which is the beginning of the climatological spring. The anticipated temperature deviations have been noticeable and the most evident in Russia, where the real winter breakthroughs are anticipated.
This is not to say that there won’t be any short-lived fronts or maybe cyclones which bring snow, but regarding big winter events, it seems that nothing significant will occur. This is further supported by the fact that less than average rainfall is predicted, which suggests the continued dominance of warm anticyclones, Istramet reports.
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What do long term forecasts say?
The Severe Weather Europe Service also announced yesterday what it expects to happen in February. They also predicted what spring might be like.
Given that high air pressure will remain over much of Europe and Asia, temperatures are expected to be above average for the season during February. This means that there is a greater likelihood that there won’t be any real winter weather over continental Europe. As Severe Weather Europe Service notes, there is always the possibility of a transitional cold pattern as a cold front could cross over Europe, but according to current forecast models there is very little likelihood of this. As we move into February, the polar vortex slowly loses its effect and any major change in dynamics, in terms of the arrival of cold fronts, would be too late to create a sustainable pattern of cold weather.
What kind of Spring is ahead of us?
According to ECMWF's Severe Weather Europe model; it has provided insight regarding what this year's spring in Europe might look like.
The ECMWF model suggests a spring pattern, which is like winter. High air pressure systems are evident in the North Pacific, Western Atlantic and Europe.
Taking the high air pressure into account for March, April and May; air temperatures are expected to be higher than average for this time of year in Europe and Asia.
As for precipitation, drier weather is expected in southern Europe, which correlates with higher air pressure. Continental Europe should experience average rainfall, which means that no long droughts are expected. Lower pressure over the Atlantic could lead to higher rainfall in Central and Northern Europe.
Danijela Froki | Unsplash
Zoran Vakula’s Long Term Weather Forecast
In an interview with Zoran Vakula of Slobodna Bosna, he revealed what to expect in the upcoming months.
"The data from DHMZ meteorological stations confirms that this winter so far is among the warmest, in many places on the Adriatic and in the highlands and among the 10 warmest in since the beginning of recorded weather measurements.”
“Even in long-term forecast calculations of most meteorological centers - there are no expected changes for the remainder of winter. For our part of Europe, it is still very likely that anticyclones - high-pressure fields with relatively frequent temperature inversions will be accompanied by the retention of relatively warm air in higher layers of the atmosphere, which will continue to be noticeable.”
“Therefore, it seems almost certain that the mean air temperature in the highlands and Adriatic will continue to be higher than the average, in many places considerably higher, while long-term fog and low retention clouds could ‘save’ lowlands from those above average highs. If this is the case, we will still have very little rainfall in the winter, but pollution in the lowlands could still be high. But I hope that we will still have some wind, which will make that impossible in the lowlands."
“Regarding summer, I do not have any long-term prognostic calculations, but according to what is available up to July – it is unlikely that there will be any long-term cool periods over the upcoming months in our part of Europe. Unless one arrives at the end of one month and lasts until the beginning of the following month, this isn’t evident in the calculations of the mean monthly air temperature, since periods with above average temperatures will likely prevail.”
“In contrast to this positive temperature deviation, precipitation forecasts are showing an increased likelihood of negative deviations, which are somewhat less than the perennial average. In short, it will be relatively warm and arid in the first part of 2020! But of course, this is what is most likely now, and is not certain. The prognosis is not the diagnosis.”
“With forecasts, it's important not to overlook the probabilities. Sometimes there is an occurrence for which the forecast probability had been low, or even minimal, such as May 2019, which was one of the coldest in known history, although at the end of that April it was only considered a low probability. As it turned out, last May was among the ten, or even four, coldest in most of Croatia,” Vakula points out.
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