Some expect problems in Croatian neighbourhood.
I expect that the United States will continue to play a key role in the framework of NATO and globally, said recently Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, who believes that, despite some statements made by new US President Donald Trump, NATO will continue to be high on the list of priorities of the American administration. “We have to make a distinction between pre-election rhetoric at the time of transition and consolidated policies of the US administration”, said Plenković, reports Jutarnji List on January 21, 2017.
However, many analysts in Croatia do not share Prime Minister’s optimist. Historian Ivo Banac said that it was too early to make assessments about what can be expected from Trump, but added that the fact in itself said a lot. “The situation is unpredictable because his statements tend to be contradictory. What he has said about NATO, the EU, the role of Germany and Brexit is quite unusual for an American leader, and it may cause some concern”, said Banac. He disagreed with some analysts, particularly in the USA, who panic and think that the United States could become a factor of uncertainty, lose political power or that this is the beginning of the end of Western civilization. “Certainly, one should be careful, but I believe that things are not so dramatic”, added Banac who believes that the American democratic traditions and institutions are too strong to allow something like that to happen. “It is not easy to change anyone's policies overnight, and certainly not in the United States”, concluded Banac.
Historian Tvrtko Jakovina believes that Trump is an amateur who does not understand the subtleties of diplomacy and politics. “Trump can make a mess that would turn the United States into a factor of instability and unpredictability”, said Jakovina. He thinks that the instability of the USA would intensify with the possible distancing of Washington from the EU and the values of Western civilization. The United States must not allow conflicts with the EU, China, Arab countries, because it would weaken the position of the United States and open too many fronts.
“Some on the Balkans, but also in Russia, believe that with Trump’s election there will be a new division of spheres of influence, just like it happened 50 or 60 years ago. But these is an old-fashioned way of thinking. Many have large, often unrealistic expectations of Trump, but I think that, certainly in the near term, US policies towards this region will not change significantly”, said Banac.
On the other hand, Jakovina believes that the United States may change its priorities and “surrender” to Russia some regions. “Ukraine could be first hit, since the statements about possible lifting of sanctions could lead to such a scenario.” Jakovina adds that similar events could take place in the Balkans, primarily relating to Montenegro which could find itself in trouble. Croatia should be careful because it would become a border country in the new potential redistribution of influence in Europe.
Branko Caratan, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences, said that President Trump has talked about isolationism, weakening support for the EU and NATO, strained relations with China and the Arab world, providing implicit support to right-wing populism in Europe, but also about the reset of relations with Russia. In the combination of populism and conservatism, everything becomes possible, particularly in foreign policy.
