April 21, 2020 - The Adriatic sea, self-isolation as it once was. As we dare to dream of a possible 2020 season, where Croatia should focus its efforts, and how can Croatian tourism compete on price?
Hvar has been gorgeous these last few days, before today's Manchester rain, as beautiful as I can remember it since I first set eyes on the island I subsequently fell in love with 18 years ago.
I am very fortunate to have been able to self-isolate here, and the social distancing and lack of visitors has meant that it almost feels like I have the island to myself.
The weather is warm, the sea inviting, and the aromatic fields offer a variety of sensations, both visual and aromas.
It takes me right back to when I first became truly aware of tourism in Croatia, in a staff house in Hargeisa in Somaliland back in 2002.
The Mediterranean as It Once Was, the Croatian National Tourist Board video which came on during a commercial break on CNN - a commercial which changed my life and brought me to a new life in Croatia, where I have lived ever since.
And Hvar at the moment feels like it did all those years ago. It has changed considerably since then, of course, but now - devoid of tourists, its spectacular nature to the fore - it reminds me more than ever of the time I first discovered it 18 years ago.
The Mediterranean as It Once Was in 2002.
Self-Isolation as It Once Was in 2020.
And the tourists will return and new generations will fall in love with this magical island, as I did. The big question is whether that will happen this year, and whether or not there will be a 2020 season at all.
I have noticed growing optimism in recent days on the back of the slight easing of restrictions in various countries. There is talk of a Czech corridor for tourists to the Adriatic, and as the weather improves, the longing for lazy days on the Adriatic as the self-isolation drags on gets ever stronger.
Will there be a season? Perhaps. I do not have a crystal ball, but as I wrote almost a month (and several lifetimes) ago in Hope v Reality: Will There Be a 2020 Tourist Season in Croatia?, if there is it will be different for sure, and there are several key factors to take into consideration.
Let's start with flights to Croatia.
Three things should paint the picture of flights to Croatia.
This was the lead banner on the Ryanair website when I wrote my article a month ago, offering deals on September breaks. One month later, the only thing which has been updated on the banner is the photograph.
The second-biggest budget airline - and a key player in the Croatian tourism market - is easyJet. This from an article on the closing of most of Lonely Planet's operations in The Guardian a few days ago:
Now, even Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou of easyJet, the second-largest budget airline in Europe, thinks his company will feel like a startup again once national lockdowns are lifted.
And as we reported a couple of weeks ago in Goodbye Season 2020? American, Qatar Push Dubrovnik to 2021, Eurowings Cuts Fleet, the inter-continental airlines have already written off season 2020 in its entirety, while cutbacks at Eurowings and Lufthansa are also going to impact the Croatian market. American Airlines was due to fly until October from Philadelphia to Dubrovnik, and so their decision to cancel has less to do with the health threat of corona, and more to do with the economic consequences. With record unemployment in the States, there will be much fewer people travelling. And for many who do travel, price is going to be a big factor. A short hop to Mexico will be a better budget option.
Less flights is better news for Croatian tourism than the competition
Although less flights is not great news for the tourism industry, it will actually impact Croatia much less than the competition. Imagine the challenges ahead for the likes of Greece, Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, even Montenegro, Spain and Italy, to get foreign tourists to their destinations. While Croatia has enjoyed considerable success in attracting long-haul tourists - United States, South Korea, China, Japan, Brazil and Australia come to mind - the vast majority of tourists arrivals (about 75% from memory) come by land, mostly car. Although the numbers will be less, there is much more certainty in these markets. As long as the virus is under control, borders open and the tourists have transport, they can and will come.
I was talking to an F&B manager in a 5-star hotel this week, and he told me that they were adding a lot of Austrian wines to the list, as they were expecting a much higher percentage of Austrians and Germans in the post-corona era. And if this survey is to be believed, a whopping 27% of Austrians want to holiday in Croatia when this is all over.
The markets of Slovenia, Austria, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Poland and Serbia have always been important to Croatian tourism. And never more so than this year. And with the lack of flights and close proximity to Croatia, Croatia is in pole position to accommodate as many tourists as want and can afford to travel. And there is one big juicy bone that will be driving them wild with desire in their isolation.
Let's put progressive tourism on hold, for 2020 is all about the Adriatic
In the pre-corona era, I wrote a lot about the lack of strategy and vision of Croatian tourism, of overtourism on the coast and the over-reliance on the Adriatic. I presented an alternative vision in Branding Croatia for the Future: 5 Gifts and Trends to Focus On. I still stand by every word of this as a strategy for the future, but these are extraordinary times. And after all these restrictions and deprivation, the thought of a gorgeous beach and a dip in the glistening Adriatic has become a 'must-have' for many. I have been posting lots of photos and videos of Hvar on social media, and I can see the desire, the longing, and the promise to be on Hvar soon from many, many people.
As is often the case in the Kingdom of Accidental Tourism, a combination of factors will enable this tourism to happen 'slucajno', without any real effort - lack of flights mean other destinations are harder to get to, Croatia has what everyone wants - over 1,000 islands and 1,777 km of fabulous Adriatic coast, with every man and his dog desperate to escape to the sea. But if we could come up with an effective campaign and really play on those emotions and desires, the payback could be much higher. Perhaps Self-Isolation as It Once Was is not the right approach, but there are marketing departments with more resources and experience than this fat Irish blogger.
So IF we can have a season, then things perhaps look as dire as they might seem. Everything depends on the virus, of course. But assuming that all is ok for a later season start, the other main thing that could really affect things is...
Price, the Achilles heel of Croatian tourism, and how to fix this
I am really fascinated to see how the Croatian hospitality industry will respond to the realities of post-corona tourism with regard to pricing. I expect some to keep things exactly as they are, and even some to increase prices as they do each year without adding any extra benefit to the consumer. They will price themselves out of a much more price-sensitive market, and the traditional greed of some tourism businesses couple with the insane tax burden that is imposed on the tourism industry and the rest of the country, could nullify the golden gifts of restricted access to the competition and the proximity of the Adriatic.
But I believe a large number of businesses will be realistic about price and realign their prices accordingly. Better to make something from the season, give guests a great (and great-value) holiday, in the hope of enticing them back next year and beyond. But how to get the message of those cheaper prices out to potential visitors?
I have been trying to catch up with technology in recent months, and watching the Croatian Government's handling of the crisis has not only been a pleasant surprise, but also very instructive. From the Koronavirus Viber group which now reaches 441,000 subscribers with the latest in an instant (in a country of 4 million) to the dedicated corona app, Andrija. the authorities have very quickly and effectively been able to get their message out and engage with the public.
Which gave me an idea. Why not use a similar approach for promoting Croatian tourism, especially to get out the message on price, for those who wanted to price things realistically and encourage tourists to come?
(Photo credit Taliah Bradbury)
Let's create an app called something better than Post-CROrona and make it available to any Croatian tourism business which wants to offer a realistic price for season 2020. Each business would get their own page within the map and category of tourism. On that page, the business could upload some basic info, a link to its pricing page of its official website, as well as details of 3 of its Post CROrona offers, and a stated % discount of its list prices to reflect the current reality. The business would be free to increase or decrease the percentage in real time.
If properly created and promoted, and if enough businesses decide to engage, this would bring all the tourism businesses in Croatia with affordable and realistic prices into one place. The potential tourist downloads the app, and can then see just how affordable Croatia 2020 could be if they decided to support the businesses offering the discounts.
Some nice free promo for the progressive businesses trying to get back on their feet, and some nice PR for Croatia against the accusation that is it an expensive destination. And some nice affordable holidays for those who do their homework and choose to relax in one of the most beautiful places on Earth.
Would it work? Who knows, but maybe, and maybe it is worth a try. Nothing is certain in the Corona Era, except one thing...
(Photo credit Taliah Bradbury)
Hvar is truly one of the most gorgeous places on the planet. As it will be when you make your next visit. Let's hope that can be this year.
For the latest news from Croatia's premier island, visit the TCN Hvar section.
